The data released by the United States last night showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 242,000, exceeding the expected value of 225,000 and the previous value of 229,000.

The annual rate of US PPI in May was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.3%.

The initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, indicating new signs of weakness in the job market, and the unexpectedly lower-than-expected PPI once again proved that inflation is falling. PPI captures changes in commodity prices and is usually regarded as a barometer of inflation. The overall CPI and core CPI on Wednesday fell across the board. The lower-than-expected PPI on Thursday also potentially reflected the continued decline in inflation. There is reason to continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, although the hawkish dot plot shows only one.

According to the current situation, there is a certain probability of a rate cut in September, but the market is obviously not very sure (the reason is that the hawkish dot plot shows that there will be only one rate cut this year, and the current inflation rate is 3.4%, and the Federal Reserve has enough reasons to continue to wait). If the rate cut is certain in November, then there is a high probability that it will pick up in September.

Let's talk about the recent market. Bitcoin hasn't reached a new high for almost 3 months. It has been fluctuating within a range, but many copycats have fallen back to the level of 414, or even lower (such as CRV, even the founder was exposed). The difficulty level can be seen. Bitcoin's current market share has reached 54%. This share shows that a large-scale wealth effect has not yet occurred, and there is still a long way to go before the bull market. But everyone should be prepared for a protracted war in this round. It is much more difficult to operate than Brother Ming imagined. It may become less pure due to the participation of institutions. This is why I think the bonus period will soon peak after this round (there may be another round). Cherish this round!