Bitcoin moved within the range of 66251-68249 during the day
At the time of writing the Review, the price of Bitcoin was 66750
Market capitalization 2.37 trillion, dominance index 55.51%
Stock markets closed positively yesterday. The S&P 500 is at 5433, the Nasdaq has generally updated its highs. Bond yields fell to 4.25% (on Monday they were above 4.45%), but the dollar index is quite high (about 104.8).
The positive is clear - the economic data that came out this week is favorable for the markets. Both CPI and PPI are below forecast, which allows the Fed to move on to lowering rates.
True, Powell, with his rhetoric, tried to impress on the market that the Fed would fight for 2% inflation, which is absolutely unrealistic in the current economic situation, and keep the rate high in the future. But the market, judging by the indices at their highs, does not particularly believe him. At the same time, the probability of a rate cut in September is 59.5%. Lower than it was immediately after the CPI was released on Wednesday (it was 63%). But higher than at the beginning of the week (45%).
Today at 17-00 Moscow time data on inflation expectations in the United States for June will be released. If they suddenly show an increase in inflation, the market will be upset.
The crypto market is showing weakness. Despite the external positivity (of the fund), and Gensler, who announced the approval of S1 forms for the Ethereum ETF until the end of the summer, Bitcoin has not been able to return even above 67K since yesterday evening.
Why?
Firstly, there is not enough money in the market. In the second half of May, the market made a good move on expectations of an immediate bullrun on the approval of the ETH ETF. But the approval turned out to be somewhat delayed (it will be, but not right now), consolidation above 70K failed twice, on the third attempt, which was seen twice this week, large sales began already from 70K.
The capitalization of the crypto market, if we take it from March, has already failed to reach the level of 2.6-2.7 trillion several times. Capitalization going above this level ends in a drain.
This happens in the crypto market. In 2020, they couldn’t get 400 billion in capitalization for a long time.
This year they talked about the importance of the capitalization level of 2 trillion, which, after being taken, has repeatedly acted as a powerful support.
It looks like 2.6-2.7 trillion capitalization is the next significant level.
Secondly, since February Bitcoin has been in a range (60000-72000, with short-term extreme exits slightly higher and slightly lower). And the market crowd is irrational - when nothing happens in the market for a long time, it loses interest and activity. Volumes are falling, mentions of crypto and searches on the Internet are decreasing, that is, interest in the market is being lost and the flow of money into it is decreasing. Then, when events do happen, interest, volumes, and money immediately appear. For some reason, no one needed Bitcoin below 20K two years ago. And everyone ran to him for 50K.
Blockheads? Yes. Bitcoin at 20K is much more interesting than at 50K).
But that's how the market works. And so it will be now. Maximum interest and new money will flow into the market after the highs are updated.
Even experienced investors may be bothered by the high dollar index. All past bull runs, growth occurred when the dollar index was below 100. And now it’s almost 105, and we’ve already updated our highs several times.
For new highs in Bitcoin, it is highly desirable for the dollar index to go below the support at 103.9. As soon as it consolidates below, the new ATH of the main cryptocurrency will be within a few days.
With alts everything is the same - they are as weak as possible. Only TON looks decent, it is already approaching 8. Since 2022 they have been saying that this is a TOP asset that needs to be recruited. It was below 2 for a long time then. Everyone could).
If we leave for the weekend with Bitcoin above 68K, many alts will show local growth. In case of a drain below 66K, alts will suffer.
