Typical features are as follows
1. The trend is similar to that of US stocks, with no independent market trend;
2. Big positive news cannot push the market; halving, Ethereum #ETF, presidential candidates holding coins and other big positive news cannot trigger the market;
3. Weaker than big tech; compared with S&P, it follows the decline but not the rise; its trend is not as good as NVDA/META/GOOG/AVGO, etc.
4. Led by the US macro data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve; totally out of temper.
5. The US cannot grow without loose monetary policy; the EU, Canada and other countries have not responded to interest rate cuts;
Looking back at the past ten days of great volatility:
June 4, US JOLTs job openings - small positive news;
June 5, US ADP employment data - positive;
On June 5, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates for the first time - a small positive;
June 6, initial and continuing unemployment claims - small positive news;
On June 6, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time - good news;
June 7, US non-farm payrolls - bad news;
June 7, U.S. unemployment rate - small positive;
June 12, US May CPI - great news;
June 12, Fed meeting dot plot - big negative; Powell's speech is hawkish;
June 13, US May PPI monthly rate - positive;
The trend is completely controlled by these macro data; on June 6, it peaked at 71,700, and then faced negative news, breaking through and fluctuating downward;
The S&P and Nasdaq ignored the negative news and set new highs;
A big negative non-farm payrolls report with fake data and the Fed’s dot plot showing only one rate cut this year has made BTC shaky;
If yesterday’s CPI was negative, I believe BTC would have returned to 60,000 by now, so BTC is a “water buffalo”.
As long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates or release more money, it will not be able to stand up!
The situation of other altcoins can be imagined. They are leeches sucking the blood of BTC.
Some painful revelations:
1. The bull market narrative of Bitcoin halving has failed; the reduction in output is too small, and the impact is huge;
2. There is a lack of innovation in the Web3 field, and Ponzi schemes continue. If there is no underlying innovation, the Web3 story will end in the next two years.
3. BTC has become a small-cap stock in the U.S. stock market, not as strong as big technology stocks, and is in the same boat with Russell;
3. There will be no digital currency bull market in the future, only a band-like bubble "water buffalo" under the background of interest rate cuts and monetary easing.
