The "Hawkish dot plot" shattered the dream of a rate cut before September, and stocks, bonds and the Fed went against each other.
The Bitcoin market didn't realize it and just followed suit. The stock market was dominated by the macro-economic situation, and the consolidation continued, preparing for a reversal.
The differentiation of altcoins may become more serious, and positions can only keep up with the pace.
I. Fundamentals
1. Super Wednesday reappeared the contrast, and the gains of the stock, bond and Bitcoin markets were given up.
(1) At 20:30 on Wednesday night, the May CPI data released by the U.S. Department of Labor was lower than expected, raising expectations of an earlier rate cut, and stocks, bonds and Bitcoin rose sharply.
(2) At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the June interest rate dot plot, which intuitively released the most hawkish signal of the year. It is expected that there will be only one rate cut this year, which is two fewer than the prediction of the March dot plot. In addition, as many as four Federal Reserve officials support no rate cut this year, and the median expectation for the long-term policy rate has increased from 2.6% to 2.8%.
2. Regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US economic data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve are increasingly showing a contrast, which may indicate that the rise in risk markets is not what the Federal Reserve wants to see.
The gradually declining economic data performance in the second quarter tends to support the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates earlier, but the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve has not changed much. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been frequently hit by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes or the remarks of Federal Reserve officials that there will be no interest rate cuts this year.
3. The tired summer of the trading market is the most difficult time of the year, but it is also the time to prepare for the big market. Macro and industry information will dominate the recent market, and the contrast between US economic data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve will increase the difficulty of short-term operations in the trading market.
2. Currency market tone and suggestions
1. Market tone: Continue high consolidation and reproduce the stock game. In the absence of catalysts, the possibility of big rises and falls is relatively low. The consolidation range is 65,000~71,000. There may be a market with a downward pin, which is also an opportunity to pick up money.
2. Recommendations:
BTC, ETH: Keep spot positions unchanged and wait for price increases. Rollover of some positions can be carried out; appropriately extend the trading cycle of contracts and patiently wait for the entry range of long and short positions.
Copyright: It is not recommended to chase the varieties with large short-term gains; control the number of holdings, try to avoid adding varieties and changing positions, and carry out swing operations on the holding currencies to spread the cost or get out of the position.
