The current macro situation!
1: Due to good news, the stock market rose, and technology stocks rose across the board. The share prices of giants such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla exceeded 1%; however, Powell's speech dealt a heavy blow to the US economy and caused market panic.
2: He announced that the US economy remained stable, but the inflation level was still lower than expected, and the job market basically recovered. He hinted that the inflation rate will remain at a low level and inflation is expected to peak.
3: Therefore, the inflation rate will gradually rise, but it may not reach expectations soon.
4: After the data was released, the US interest rate swap market fully priced in two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. It is expected that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November will reach 100%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is about 70%.
