The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh time in a row, and the dot plot cut its rate cut expectations from three to one this year and four next year. Officials raised their PCE and core PCE expectations for this year and next, believing that inflation has made further modest progress in recent months. The Fed maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2024-2026 and slightly raised its unemployment forecast for next year. Powell said inflation has eased significantly, but it is still too high. So far this year, there has been no greater confidence in inflation to cut rates.

"Federal Reserve Megaphone": CPI slows, but the Fed is cautious about cutting rates.

U.S. inflation unexpectedly slowed in May, and traders re-priced the Fed's chances of a November rate cut to 100%, and expected two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, but reduced to 44 basis points after the Fed's decision was announced.

CPI expectations boosted market confidence, but the subsequent dot plot hit the market again. The dot plot currently shows one interest rate cut this year, but Wall Street seems to be unconvinced and still analyzes and predicts it twice. So last night we also saw the trend of cryptocurrencies. After seeing the CPI data, it immediately rose, and then fell back to the starting point. Without innovative gameplay or consensus on market sentiment, it is difficult for the crypto market to move out of an independent market, so most of them still follow the fluctuations of the macro market, especially after the Bitcoin spot ETF was passed this year, this phenomenon is more obvious.

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