$BTC is currently trading around $69,800, with the fear and greed index showing a score of 72, indicating some level of optimism among investors and traders about its price direction. After reaching a new all-time high of approximately $73,700 on March 14, 2024, Bitcoin underwent a consolidation period. Following this peak, it dropped sharply to the $61,000 region, then rose again to the $71,000-$72,000 range, only to be rejected twice and start declining towards the range-low. During this decline, it formed a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. On May 15, Bitcoin successfully broke out of the bullish flag, reaching the $71,000-$72,000 region, which has been acting as a strong resistance zone. It was rejected twice again from this area.
Another key observation is the recent upward movement that began from the range low on May 2, forming a trendline. After the latest rejection from the range high, $BTC broke below the trendline and dropped to the $66,000 region, creating a sub-range. This sub-range low also coincides with the EMA 50 (1D), making it a significant region. Today, with a positive CPI outcome, Bitcoin bounced from this level and is currently retesting the trendline.
Let's explore both bullish and bearish scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: This sub-range is currently crucial. If $BTC gets rejected again from the trendline, it is likely to decline towards the sub-range low once more. A break below the sub-range low would likely lead to a drop to around $64,000, which also aligns with the daily supertrend.
Bullish Scenario: For bulls, the region around $72,000 is the most critical area, representing the range high. $BTC has been rejected from this level five times in the past three months. For a bullish outlook, Bitcoin needs to achieve a clear breakout of the range and a daily close above $72,000. In the event of a successful breakout, Bitcoin could rise to the $78,000 to $84,000 region. See the chart below, where targets for both scenarios are mentioned.
