Interpretation of macroeconomic data on June 12: US CPI in May. Recommended reading: ★★★
US inflation CPI data exceeded expectations, and the data once again promoted optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
Published data: May unadjusted annual CPI recorded 3.3%, lower than expected and the previous value,
May unadjusted monthly CP recorded 0%, lower than expected, significantly lower than expected.
May seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate recorded 3.4%, lower than expected, lower than the previous value,
May seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate recorded 0.2%, lower than expected, lower than the previous value,
This CPI data is generally positive, which will help promote expectations of interest rate cuts and benefit risk markets.
Impact:
It will bring short-term gains, but if the rising sentiment wants to continue, it still depends on the announcement of the dot chart at 2:00 a.m. and Powell's speech at 2:30 a.m.
Note: Through the details of this CPI data, it can be generally seen that energy and income issues will still bring pressure to inflation, while food inflation pressure is gradually decreasing.
Although CPI broad inflation is positive, for the Federal Reserve, they are more concerned about the response of PCE data to inflation. Compared with CPI, CPE statistics cover a wider range and are more comprehensive. At the same time, Powell can use this as a reason to suppress the overly optimistic expectations brought about by the positive CPI.
Continue to wait for the second thread of today's macro narrative-the release of the Federal Reserve monetary minutes and dot plot at 02:00.
