Before discussing today's CPI, I would like to emphasize the importance of macro data, especially the impact of CPI on expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current broad CPI, which is the inflation level that everyone often mentions, has been determined to be 3.4%. Market expectations and the Cleveland Fed's expectations are all in line with this. Therefore, if the actual announced CPI value is lower than 3.4%, it will undoubtedly be good for the market.
However, it is worth noting that the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting five and a half hours after the CPI data is released. At this meeting, the release of the dot plot will become the focus of more market attention, which may dilute the impact of CPI data to a certain extent.
On the other hand, if the CPI data is higher than 3.4%, then the market will undoubtedly be hit. Although the Fed focuses more on core CPI data, many investors, including those in the United States, may be confused when distinguishing between CPI and core CPI. Therefore, the data impact of generalized CPI is often more significant.
At the same time, the performance of core CPI is also worthy of attention. Its previous value was 3.6%, and its expected value was 3.5%. If it is lower than expected, the market will be positive; if it is higher than expected, the same as the previous value or exceed the previous value, it will have a negative impact on the market. Especially if it exceeds the previous value, the market reaction may be more negative.
In addition, although the two-month rate data will also have a certain impact on the market, its impact is smaller than the two annual rates of CPI.
Finally, I want to emphasize that the 2024 dot plot released at 2 a.m. will be the focus of the market's most attention. Please be sure to pay close attention.
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