[Institution: The Fed's expectations of multiple rate cuts this year have failed] Golden Finance reported that for investors, "the United States will cut interest rates this year" may be one of the biggest and most important trading arguments in early 2024. It has contributed to a fundamentally optimistic view and pushed large-cap stocks and technology-dominated U.S. stock indexes to new highs in June. However, the May jobs report unexpectedly overturned this concept, while also making it more complicated where policymakers should go from now on. Jeffrey Cleveland, director and chief economist of Payden & Rygel, said that at the beginning of the year, the reason for the rate cut was based on the hope that inflation and job growth would cool, but both expectations have failed to materialize so far. If the economy continues to grow and avoids a recession, the stock market will continue to rise and hit record highs in the next 6 to 12 months. If the Fed does not cut interest rates while inflation remains high, our view is that the environment for continuing to hold Treasury bonds may not be so bad. Analyst Sean Snaith said that the unexpected employment report in May was not good news for the Fed and "should eliminate any hope of a rate cut this year."
