Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at the investment and trading platform eToro, points out that the “political center will remain,” despite which, “this may not stop pressure from the right to curb immigration policies and of decarbonisation, and undermine the EU's strong globalisation.”
We also take this opportunity to send you an analysis of the behavior of retail investors ahead of this electoral event. According to data from the platform, 54% of Spanish retailers will take their investments into account when choosing their vote. These considerations will be greater among center-right and right-wing voters.
Europe is preparing for an electoral shift to the right. . Ben Laidler, Global Markets Strategist at eToro
The 27 countries of the European Union go to the polls to elect 720 new deputies to the European Parliament (EP) for the next five years. Polls show a strong shift to the right. This may slow down some policies, from immigration to decarbonization, and bode poorly for upcoming national elections, but its impact should not be exaggerated.
These are the most important plurinational elections in the world, but they also usually register a protest vote and a low turnout, less than 50%. This weekend's results will mean strong gains for far-right parties, but will still leave them with a 25% minority of seats and historically unable to act in unison. The European Parliament is just one of the EU's three governing institutions, along with the executive branch of the European Commission and the European Council of Ministers.
The political center will remain: the centre-right EPP will likely remain the largest party and form a centrist majority with the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Still, this may not stop right-wing pressure to curb immigration and decarbonization policies and undermine the EU's steadfast globalization. It will be a bad omen for the political temperature in Europe and the prospects for major national elections, such as the French presidential elections in 2027.
It's not just the economy, stupid... it's also the markets: Small European investors will prioritize candidates that increase their profitability. Javier Molina, senior market analyst for eToro
The European elections are very present in the minds of European retail investors, who will decide their vote thinking about their portfolios, according to data from the latest edition of the study 'The pulse of the retail investor', prepared by eToro
49% of small investors in the EU take their investments into account when deciding who to vote for, compared to 47% who do not. This difference, however, is greater in Spain, where 54% of those questioned assure that they consider their investments when making their voting decision, compared to 44% who do not value it.
This tendency to vote with investments in mind is more frequent among European retailers whose ideology is center-right (55%) compared to those who are center-left (46%) and among those who define themselves as right-wing (59%) compared to those who consider themselves left-wing (43%)
EU-based retail investors feel just as positive about investing as they did a year ago: 77% feel confident, suggesting this group will not seek drastic changes in the election.
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