June 7, 2024 Grandpa checks in
As expected by the market, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time in five years, and this move was also seen by the market as the beginning of a global interest rate cut trend. Because the Fed's monetary policy rhythm is consistent with that of Europe, and the Fed's market expectations are that interest rates will start to cut in the second half of the year, if the economy is not unusually strong, it will adjust as scheduled.
The current B-circle market, from the perspective of the rising structure, is still mainly driven by domestic demand, so the real bull market may need to wait for the overflow of funds after the quantitative easing of the US dollar, and will only occur after sufficient liquidity. However, during this period, the possibility of BTC falling sharply is very small, because ETFs have recently started to exert their strength again, and the buying has been relatively strong.
It is worth noting that it is reported that many institutions are bearish on Microstrategy's stock price, with short positions as high as $6.9 billion. Even so, Microstrategy's stock price has doubled in the past six months. As the largest BTC holder, its stock price being shorted just reflects the market's bearish view on BTC prices. Once BTC prices fall significantly, shorting can achieve the Davis double-click effect.
In fact, there are some disputes about the market. Will the 70,000 pressure point be broken directly or will it fall below 60,000 again? The boundary is not clear, and it may even be reached with just one chain liquidation. In the current sideways market, there is no need to trade. Long-term positions should be fully allocated, and short- and medium-term positions should be stopped at the pressure level.
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