#非农就业数据 , which includes nine scenarios and corresponding market reaction forecasts.
Scenario 1: Substantial growth in nonfarm payrolls + strong growth in average hourly earnings
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall between 0.5% and 1.25% as it eliminates expectations of a September rate cut.
Scenario 2: Substantial growth in non-agricultural population + wage growth in line with expectations
In this scenario, stagflation concerns would ease and "keep the soft landing narrative alive, potentially turning into a Goldilocks demand for jobs." In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.5% to 1%.
Scenario 3: Substantial growth in non-agricultural employment + weaker-than-expected wage growth
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.25% to 0.75%. This is a "positive outcome, but the upside potential is not large because it would likely mean a large increase in part-time or low-income jobs."
Scenario 4: Nonfarm payrolls + strong wage growth
This outcome suggests that inflation will persist amid a tight labor market. Under this outcome, the S&P 500 will fall by 1% to 1.5%.
Scenario 5: Non-agricultural employment + wage growth are in line with expectations
This scenario suggests the economy is normalizing, not deteriorating. Under this outcome, the S&P 500 would fluctuate between flat and up 0.5%.
Scenario 6: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations + wage growth is weaker than expected
It was a "mildly positive outcome" that would ultimately increase the likelihood of a September rate cut and forecast a 0.5% to 1% gain for the S&P 500.
Scenario 7: Disappointing nonfarm payrolls + higher-than-expected wage growth
This would be the worst-case outcome for market bulls, with the S&P 500 falling 1.25% to 2%, "which would prove a stagflation strategy. Similar to what happened in early April."
Scenario 8: Nonfarm payrolls below expectations + wage growth in line with expectations
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would still fall 0.5% even if Treasury yields fell and investors rotated back into large-cap tech stocks.
Scenario 9: Nonfarm payrolls and wage growth both fall short of expectations
The stock market will have little reaction to the outcome as recession fears will grow, but the likelihood of a rate cut remains, with the S&P 500 expected to rise or fall by 0.25%.
Tonight at 20:30, the United States will release the latest non-farm payrolls report. Below is JPMorgan Chase's forecast for the report, which includes nine scenarios and corresponding market reaction forecasts.
Scenario 1: Substantial growth in nonfarm payrolls + strong growth in average hourly earnings
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall between 0.5% and 1.25% as it eliminates expectations of a September rate cut.
Scenario 2: Substantial growth in non-agricultural population + wage growth in line with expectations
In this scenario, stagflation concerns would ease and "keep the soft landing narrative alive, potentially turning into a Goldilocks demand for jobs." In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.5% to 1%.
Scenario 3: Substantial growth in non-agricultural employment + weaker-than-expected wage growth
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.25% to 0.75%. This is a "positive outcome, but the upside potential is not large because it would likely mean a large increase in part-time or low-income jobs."
Scenario 4: Nonfarm payrolls + strong wage growth
This outcome suggests that inflation will persist amid a tight labor market. Under this outcome, the S&P 500 will fall by 1% to 1.5%.
Scenario 5: Non-agricultural employment + wage growth are in line with expectations
This scenario suggests the economy is normalizing, not deteriorating. Under this outcome, the S&P 500 would fluctuate between flat and up 0.5%.
Scenario 6: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations + wage growth is weaker than expected
It was a "mildly positive outcome" that would ultimately increase the likelihood of a September rate cut and forecast a 0.5% to 1% gain for the S&P 500.
Scenario 7: Disappointing nonfarm payrolls + higher-than-expected wage growth
This would be the worst-case outcome for market bulls, with the S&P 500 falling 1.25% to 2%, "which would prove a stagflation strategy. Similar to what happened in early April."
Scenario 8: Nonfarm payrolls below expectations + wage growth in line with expectations
In this scenario, the S&P 500 would still fall 0.5% even if Treasury yields fell and investors rotated back into large-cap tech stocks.
Scenario 9: Nonfarm payrolls and wage growth both fall short of expectations
The stock market will have little reaction to the outcome as recession fears will grow, but the likelihood of a rate cut remains, with the S&P 500 expected to rise or fall by 0.25%.