140,000 bitcoins, at the current price, have reached 9 billion US dollars. Does the compensation mean huge selling pressure?

From a realistic analysis, the possibility of a large-scale decline is minimal. First of all, 140,000 bitcoins may seem large, but in the current bitcoin market dominated by institutions, it is not completely unabsorbable. Take Grayscale as an example. Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was passed, it has been the largest short seller of Bitcoin. Before April, Grayscale GBTC sold an average of about 7,000 BTC per working day, and in January when there was intensive selling, the daily selling volume even reached 10,000, and it lasted for 2 weeks. So far, Grayscale GBTC has sold a total of 332,000 BTC, with a historical net outflow of US$17.746 billion. But the result is obvious, Bitcoin has continued to rise from US$40,000 to US$67,000.

More importantly, even compensation and selling will not happen overnight. According to the announcement on MtGox's official website in 2023, the repayment plan provided by MtGox to creditors includes basic repayment and proportional repayment. The basic repayment part allows the first 200,000 yen claimed by each creditor to be paid in yen, and the proportional repayment provides creditors with two flexible options, namely "early lump-sum repayment" or "mid-term repayment and final repayment". Among them, the one-time repayment can only obtain partial compensation, and the part exceeding 200,000 yen allows creditors to choose a mixture of BTC, BCH and yen or pay the full amount in legal currency. Choosing mid-term repayment and final repayment will get more compensation, but it can take several years. In terms of payment methods, it also provides cash and cryptocurrency options.

Overall, MtGox also took into account the dangers of a concentrated market crash, adopted a decentralized compensation approach, and proposed a coin-to-coin payment option. The former CEO of MtGox also came out to clearly refute the rumors, saying that he would not sell Bitcoin immediately.

In addition, even if the compensation is concentrated, the amount of selling pressure is much less than the actual total amount. Due to the long-term nature of Mentougou, many creditors have packaged and sold their claims to funds. Therefore, the bondholders are mainly institutions. According to last year's data, only 226 claimants have more than 50% of the claims of MtGox. Under the current bullish market price, neither institutions nor retail investors will easily sell their BTC.

But is there no impact at all? Not necessarily. In the current market with depleted liquidity, panic can quickly cause prices to fall. The current payment deadline is set at October 31, 2024. Before the payment date, there will still be selling pressure and a decline in market sentiment, but in the long run, it will not cause the imagined sharp decline.

Compared with Mentougou, politics is the key issue

Compared to Mentougou, where the "wolf comes once a year", perhaps politics is the long-term topic that encryption is more concerned about.

Recently, both Biden and Trump have taken their own actions regarding encrypted ballots.

In this push-and-pull game, cryptocurrency has become the winner behind the scenes. The Ethereum ETF application was approved perhaps because cryptocurrency has become a problem. The U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary also made a rare statement on coin mixers, saying that it is not necessary to ban coin mixers, but to increase transparency and find a balance between privacy and national security.

At present, all market institutions are paying attention to the progress of FIT21's approval. If it is passed, it will mean that the United States will further relax its regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies. As long as no issuer or related party controls 20% or more of the cryptocurrency, it will be considered a commodity, thereby lifting the SEC's securities restrictions, which will also open a new era in the crypto field. If the supervision is clearer, the New York Stock Exchange will consider opening cryptocurrency trading. If this is achieved, the threshold for purchasing cryptocurrencies will be lowered day by day.

The relaxation of US regulation has become a foreseeable fact.

Currently, the crypto lobby is still working hard. Ripple donated another $25 million to the cryptocurrency super PAC Fairshake yesterday, bringing the total donations to the action committee before the November election this year to nearly $100 million.

It is still unclear whether $100 million can influence the current situation, but what is quite interesting is that institutions were once quite disdainful of enthusiastic retail investors and even maintained a condescending attitude, but in the end, it was the so-called retail investors who gathered together to form a tower, which became a key step in determining the direction of encryption.

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