Recently, many brothers have said that they don't understand the macro-impact. The first data I saw this morning was the feedback of the "stop raising interest rates ➡️ start lowering interest rates" range.

Then, during cyclical fluctuations, an overall combination analysis needs to be done, that is, the first data I saw this morning was the feedback of the "stop raising interest rates and start lowering interest rates" range.

1. Data related to inflation: The inflation rate refers to the ratio of the inflation rate to the inflation rate multiplied by 100%. Because the two governing goals of the Federal Reserve are to fight inflation and maintain employment, the corresponding interest rate cut logic is advanced when the employment data is poor.

2. Data related to the economy

GDP, adjusted real GDP Philadelphia Fed index, Markit manufacturing PMI core retail sales monthly rate, retail sales monthly rate, average hourly wage monthly rate, personal consumption expenditure price index, University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

These data, in the current environment, are lower than expected for normal recession, the pace of interest rate cuts is accelerated, and higher than expected proves that the probability of a soft landing is increased, but usually good is bad and bad is good. 4. Other directional events stock report season

Focus on the top ten federal technology stocks in the Nasdaq. The past performance and future performance guidance expectations of these companies are expected to function as the Nasdaq. : Financial reports are generally released a few weeks after the end of each quarter, roughly in January-February, April-May, July, September-October, divided into four cycles, each cycle discloses the financial report of its own fiscal year.

Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, Federal Reserve Powell's speech, Federal Reserve officials' speech, US Treasury Secretary's speech, US government bond issuance, etc. These events will be Federal Reserve Chairman Bernie heard the high-level statements on the current situation in the United States and future practices, so it is also worth reviewing. Of course, the specific logic needs to be analyzed in detail during the war

For example: US core PCE data

Price increases are conducive to increased personal consumption expenditures in the United States, conducive to increasing the level of inflation in the United States, and conducive to achieving the Fed's inflation target. The Fed will tend to reduce monetary policy, which is usually good for the US dollar and bad for the currency circle.

However, if the core PCE data remains unchanged, it means that the US personal consumption situation has not changed significantly, and the impact on the price of the currency circle is not significant.

However, if the inflation target remains below 2% for a long time, in order to increase the inflation level, the Federal Reserve is very likely to implement a relatively loose monetary policy for a period of time.

This may change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and slightly suppress the US dollar, which is what we call the interest rate considerations of the Federal Reserve in the long run.

This is good for the currency circle, gold, and the currency circle. On the one hand, if the core PCE data remains above 2% for a long time (currently 2.8), the Federal Reserve will implement a policy of continuous interest rate hikes in order to control inflation. At this time, it is good for the US dollar and bad for gold/currency circles.

In short, when we are doing orders in the currency circle, the connection between the core PCE data and the currency circle can become a trust between buyers and sellers to a certain extent.

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