Today, a big man who has been in the industry for six years officially decided not to output technical and fundamental opinions, but to study metaphysics such as "Taoism" and "Buddhism" and give certain opinions based on the market. This is the fourth person in the industry who has publicly discussed metaphysics and coins, and he is also one of his closest friends.
The fundamental reason for making such a decision is that the difference between this round of bull market and the previous two rounds is too huge. Before this year, at least the cyclical trend of Bitcoin and the technical aspects of Bitcoin were more than 80% consistent. The trend market corresponds to the technical logic, which is the basic quality of the objective existence of a risk market, even if the intermediate transition market is disordered and chaotic.
Since the Bitcoin ETF was approved this year, Bitcoin has been rising all the way, while altcoins have been unable to recover after a high rise, and Ethereum is shaky. It can be said that most people who use technical logic as a trading principle are on the verge of liquidation. The stocks they hold have been falling, the stocks that should rise have been sideways for a long time, and the stocks that have been added to the support level have directly fallen through. A piece of news is often more accurate than a few hours of indicator analysis.
Fundamental analysis is basically unprofitable, and has become the saddest thing in this thriving market. The reason for this problem is that there are natural transition laws in the market development, but more importantly, the development process is a bit distorted. The market has risen from the competition between retail investors to the competition for users. As a retail investor, projects with a market value of tens of billions have not risen for a long time, and a large number of copycats with a market value of hundreds of millions are waiting for you to give money. Who wouldn't tremble in fear?
From a macro perspective, there is no negative news in the market today. Sanshu has confirmed that the large transfers to CEX on the chain are basically tokens unlocked by the pledge project, and the number does not exceed the market's expectations. In the past twelve working days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been in a state of net inflow of funds, and the return of over-the-counter funds is obvious. Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 28.3 million US dollars, continuing the recent inflow momentum.
Therefore, when the fundamentals are relatively good, technical support has been confirmed many times, and there is no negative news on the macro level, the market will not rise but fall, and there is only one option, which is the CEX data crash. Creating a negative falling environment is one of the most effective means to make everyone give up their own chips. A little bit every day, when everyone is afraid of falling, and then a little acceleration, it will be almost time to run. The disgusting thing about dog dealers is that they grasp human nature to the extreme!
The weekly initial jobless claims data was released at 8:30 just now. The data is higher than expected, which is a positive in the short term. Focus on the PCE data tomorrow night. The data is equal to or lower than the forecast, which is good for the risk market. Given the surge in the credit card delinquency rate in the quarter and the unemployment rate higher than expected in the United States, the data tomorrow night is also likely to be positive. Of course, there is no need to guess the data that is about to be released. Just wait patiently.
After sighing, I am still confident that the bull market will continue in the future. As I said before, along with the big trend of interest rate cuts, there may be various situations that we cannot understand in the middle. There are often narrow range washes that remain sideways for several months, and there may be frequent data crashes like today. When the flood breaks the dam, even Jesus will be useless!
Finally, there are three pieces of news to cover positions. BlackRock disclosed the seed investor information of Ethereum spot ETF, and it is expected to start trading at the end of June or early July. Regarding Ethereum, the only negative factor other than the technical aspect is the dumping of Grayscale ETHE.
For three consecutive days, some Fed officials have been hawkish, and expectations for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are generally lower. The probability of a rate cut in September is around 45%, and the probability of a rate cut in November is around 60%. Some dovish comments also said that the frequency of rate cuts will be maintained twice within the year. If the data tomorrow night is positive, the probability of a rate cut in September will increase.
After Nvidia breaks through the historical high, the Super AI Alliance (ASI) will be coming soon, that is, the three tokens of AGIX, FET and OCEAN will be merged into one. The birth of artificial super intelligence is expected to lead to the outbreak of a new round of AI market. After the meme is temporarily extinguished, the relevant sectors can be paid attention to in the short and medium term.
In this market full of manipulation and aggressive dumping, not getting on and off the train at will is a basic skill for long-term survival. After the market adjustment, the mainstream sectors have been eager to try. I hope it is not a flash in the pan!
BTC: Bitcoin broke through the intraday support directly. The current market has stabilized for the third time above the strong bottom support of 67,100 points. This position has also been the focus of attention in the past two days. The technical side of the market has basically confirmed the effectiveness of the support, but considering the principle that market news is greater than technical aspects, if the support point is broken down within two days, the bottom position of the market will be around 65,000 points, and there is basically no possibility of further decline. The upper trend pressure level is 69,600 points. It is bullish after breaking through, and it will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term.
ETH: Ethereum's decline is slightly stronger than Bitcoin. Overall, the bullish trend of the daily line has not changed much. The bottom strong support is 3600 points, the upper intraday pressure level is 3820 points, and the pressure level after breaking through is 3920 points. The trend pressure remains unchanged.
DOGE: At the end of the daily adjustment, judging from the on-chain data, the recent accumulation of funds by the main force is relatively huge, and the volume ratio is greater than 1. The trend tends to see the previous high in the short and medium term, which can be paid attention to.
JTO: I have talked about it a lot recently, so please pay attention to it. The price-performance ratio is not bad at present. The sectors that were able to rise first after the last round of sharp decline are all backed by strong main forces. Those who entered at 3.5 points yesterday and the past two days directly got the new high market.
The overall bottoming technology of the altcoins is relatively good. DOGE, FIL, ORDI, CORE, SSV, TIA, GALA, JTO, and ORDI rebounded 13% during the day. After the correction, they are still the core of the closing batch. Some of the other coins with relatively good technical aspects have broken the bottom of the market, but the repair situation has improved in the evening, so you can continue to pay attention. In addition, there are more AI sectors in the early stage. The focus is on adding positions after early June.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #MegadropLista #meme板块关注热点 #贝莱德IBIT比特币持有量反超灰度GBTC #MtGox钱包动态 #现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准 $BTC
