The brainstorming session of the teachers yesterday was extremely exciting. As a primary school student, I listened carefully throughout the whole process and took notes seriously. It included the logical analysis of macro data explanations, the relationship between historical monetary policies and market changes, and the key issues in the ETH spot review process, etc. Everyone expressed their opinions, and there were clashes of opinions in the middle, which was completely different from the format and content of other Spaces I had heard before.


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I was fortunate enough to be invited to take the microphone and share some superficial views on the top price forecast of BTC in this cycle. To sum up, it can be seen from two aspects:

1. From the perspective of miners’ profits; high profits help miners recover cash flow and prepare for upgrading to higher computing power. Then, through calculation, when BTC reaches more than 90,000 US dollars, mainstream mining machines can quickly recover their investment in 12-16 months. This is the threshold of "high profit". At the same time, the integer mark of 100,000 US dollars is also an integer psychological mark expected by most people, so 90,000-100,000 US dollars is an important price range.

2. From the perspective of the chip structure; currently, 2.6 million BTC are accumulated in the USD 60,000-67,000 range, accounting for 16% of the total circulating market. This is a huge accumulation area, indicating that a lot of chips are changing hands here. If the chips here are not fully digested in the future, then when the BTC price reaches USD 120,000-130,000, it means that the chips here have an average of 200% unrealized profit. The trading psychology of "doubling the principal" easily causes the market to generate concentrated selling pressure at this position.

In addition, I mentioned in yesterday's Space that there is a BTC top price algorithm model, which I can also share with you here:

The algorithm model does not mean that this cycle will definitely reach the predicted position, but it can only be said that the model has never made mistakes in the verification of historical data. On March 14, the model estimated that the peak of this round was around $134,000; and by May 22, the top price had moved up to $146,800. This is an Easter egg for your reference.