Bitcoin ($BTC) hits $7.3W and sets a new all-time high?

Yesterday, Bitcoin hit $70,000 and then fell back to the current $68,000, while Ethereum also hit $3,977 and then fell back. The overall market sentiment is obviously optimistic, and local concepts have also been released. In addition to the Meme sector, there are also new Binance coins headed by "NOT", all of which have risen to varying degrees, indicating that the market has gradually entered the precursor of opportunities.

From a macro logic point of view, relatively certain trend opportunities usually appear before the general election. Although interest rate cuts may be repeated, the result is inevitable. Europe may start to cut interest rates around June, which is a positive factor for the global capital market because it will increase liquidity. Therefore, the bull market is inevitable.

In the short term, we need to find some new good opportunities. The current market liquidity is not enough to fully support it, so it is mainly a rotation between sectors. When funds flow into the Meme sector, other sectors may need to wait for signals. But once Ethereum starts to start, the alt market will be more optimistic. Therefore, I think the alt season will not be far away.

The market fell back this morning, and there are three main reasons for this.

First, there is activity in the coins of Mentougou. Assets worth $500 million, including more than 8,000 BTC, were withdrawn from the Mentougou wallet to an unknown wallet. This has sparked market concerns that a black swan event may occur. This is a disturbing situation for the billions of dollars of BTC that were paid out before October this year.

Second, although Bitcoin is only one step away from the high of $72,000, there are a lot of locked plates above. These locked plates cover the market in March-April this year and 2021, and have experienced panic caused by the plunge. Now as prices recover, these locked plates may start to sell. Therefore, unless there is super good news, it may be difficult to break through $70,000. In contrast, it seems more attractive to buy Ethereum at the moment because ETH still has some good news support.

Third, big funds usually wait and see before the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for April.They want to see if the data is in line with expectations, so there is a high probability that the market will fluctuate before the data is released. Usually, the market is more likely to fall before the data is released.

The Mentougou wallet has a total of 14,200 bitcoins, worth about $10 billion. Although it seems that these assets are being collected, even if compensation begins, the market will not have too many problems. The amount of funds in the market is much larger than before, and the compensation will not be all at once, but may be carried out in installments. Therefore, even if there is a large-scale sell-off, the market will be able to digest it gradually.

The compensation of Mentougou may have a negative impact in the short term, but it is positive in the long run. The short-term decline will not change the fundamentals of the market trend, and the second half of the year is still expected to usher in a violent bull market. At present, we need to focus on the support level of $66,000. If it falls to this level again at the 4-hour level, it may enter a mode of falling to verify support in the short term.

#ETH #5月市场关键事件 #BTC走势分析 #山寨季何时到来？

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