Many people should feel that this bull market is significantly different from the previous one.

1. The wealth effect is insufficient. There is no general rise in the market like the last round. The choice of the target is very important. If you are not careful, you will lose money. Most currencies cannot outperform BTC.

2. The trend of value coins is often not as good as Memecoin. Many value coins listed on the stock exchange are on a downward trend.

3. The sector is seriously divided, and funds only circulate within their own ecosystem, and the rotation is not smooth, giving the market the feeling that there is no synergy

4. The airdrop industry has become very competitive due to the scripted and clustered development, which has led to many impacts.

5. The narrative led by BTC is not as "fast and rough" as the previous narrative, and it is relatively cold and quiet. At the same time, DEFI does not seem to be favored in the BTC narrative.

6. Although Web3 games received huge amounts of funding in the last round, they did not produce any hits

The last bull market was called the "water-release bull" because the global (mainly the United States) flooded the market with money and the spillover effect was very obvious. This time, we can clearly feel that "the funds are not so sufficient", so where did the money go?

The current amount of stablecoins in the circle is only about 10 billion US dollars more than the previous BTC peak, and is still about 28.7 billion US dollars away from the previous high of 187 billion US dollars.

Of course, we need to be more rigorous. The SEC approved the BTC ETF on January 11, 2024, which is believed to bring huge incremental funds to Crypto. Therefore, we need to consider this part of the incremental funds that are not reflected in stablecoins because they are real purchasing power.

The total holdings of all current large-scale BTC ETFs

In terms of overall holdings, the increase is approximately 850991-655800 = 195191 BTC. If the holding price is calculated based on US$50,000-60,000, the incremental funds are approximately between 9.8 billion and 11.7 billion.

If we also express the incremental purchasing power of ETFs in the form of stablecoins, we can see that the number of stablecoins in the current Crypto has not yet reached the peak of the last bull market, but the difference is not that big. Considering that the ETF has only been passed for 4 months, from a long-term perspective, we can indeed maintain a certain degree of optimism.

We need to be deeply aware that: although we can have optimistic expectations for future "interest rate cuts and monetary easing" and incremental ETF funds, the current on-site funds are indeed insufficient!

In a market with less abundant funds, limited money has to be used to do more things and to allocate to different roles, which will inevitably lead to intensified competition in the market, which is also the internal reason for the various "changes" we can see. In this scenario, the development status and logic of various parts of the industry have changed, and the industry development will enter a new pattern.

In this round, the tendency of funds to "focus on the head" is more obvious

① In this round, a number of high-market-cap and low-circulation currencies were added. These currencies diverted funds on the one hand, and increased the bubble of market value on the other hand;

② Many of the previous “old coins” still maintain a high market value under the operation of market makers;

In such a situation, where is the money to create a general rise? ! And because there is no general rise effect, people tend to be conservative in the game and choose more stable top currencies, further exacerbating the lack of funds for other currencies.

We need to wait for the sustained growth brought by ETFs to build more consensus within the circle, and we also need to wait for a new era of monetary easing to boost liquidity within the circle.

End of the article

The fundamentals (main tone) of this round of industry have changed, and the endogenous logic of many tracks has also undergone tremendous changes. What we can and must do is to "adjust our cognition" to adapt to the [new pattern of industry development]. Here, we are not only ordinary users like you and me, but also participants with other identities in the industry.

As the industry gradually matures, the degree of game will further intensify. It is meaningless to stand still and complain. Only by considering things from the other side of the game can you find that fleeting opportunity.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment and ask questions