In the next few weeks, Republicans and Democrats will announce their presidential candidates.
Crypto prediction platform Polymarket has $13.7 million locked up in contracts for who the Republican vice presidential nominee will be, but those investments have yet to reach consensus.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott leads the convention with 23%, while the "other" option totals 25%. Many high-profile Republicans can't even reach double digits. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., known for his anti-vaccination views. It received only 2% of the votes.
Is There Earning Potential?
Polymarket bans users who reside in the United States pursuant to a regulatory agreement. This raises the possibility that bettors on the platform may not be sufficiently knowledgeable about American politics.
An uninformed market can create large discrepancies between facts and expectations, creating profit opportunities.
Prediction market trading center CSP Trading highlighted on Twitter that Polymarket has only a 90% chance of a Democrat winning New York. While 90% may seem high, it's worth remembering that the last Republican to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Polls show Biden will lead this state by 10 points, and while that margin is narrowing, it still represents a significant lead.
Similar figures apply to other states. The market rates the probability of California going Democratic at 92%; 10% chance of a Republican winning Washington state; and a Republican has a 93% chance of winning West Virginia.
Regardless, betting on Polymarket's "Democrats win New York" contract offers far more than the profits from any high-interest savings account.
Finally...
Polymarket investors are betting that Donald Trump will make a major announcement about crypto at his upcoming rally.
It appears that some crypto traders are planning to use an image of the Joe Biden-referencing meme coin BODEN, which has a market cap of $240 million as of this morning, at the Trump rally.
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