This issue has been discussed on Twitter. From January onwards, people have been doing copycat trading until now. If we compare the returns from full-position trading, BTC has now reached a new high. Most people who do copycat trading certainly don’t have as high returns as those who do full-position trading of BTC. The price has nearly doubled from 38,000 in October to now, but the copycat trading has experienced a halving.
So should we start doing BTC now instead of doing copycat trading? We can look at this question from three perspectives: personal risk preference, capital size, and trading style.
, the structure of the copycat. After reading this, think about what kind of person you are, then decide whether you are investing or trading, and finally decide whether to do BTC or copycat.
1. Personal risk preference & capital size
Everyone comes to the cryptocurrency circle to get rich, including many of my friends in the community. They told me that their goal for this round is 10 times or 100 times. After experiencing the beating in April, they generally lowered their goals and 3 to 5 times is enough. High risk and high return coexist. It is impossible to have high return and low risk. Buying BTC is a low risk and low return thing.
Personal risk preference and capital size (investment capital should not affect your life) affect your trading strategy. If you are naturally risk-averse and averse to losses, then you invest 70% in BTC ETH SOL BNB and 30% in other investments. This configuration is reasonable. If you are a strong gambler and do not have much capital, then buying BTC does not make much sense for you.
Different fund sizes bring different risk management. The risk management of A7, A8, and A9 is completely different. A8*10% return = A7, A7*100% return = A7. When the fund is large, the risk control line of the fund will naturally increase, and there is no need to set the target at 100%. I will not discuss A9. I personally have not touched A9's funds, so I cannot provide some experience feedback.
So the first question is that you need to understand that personal risk preferences will also vary with the size of your funds. Figure out your own preferences before deciding whether to mainly buy BTC ETH SOL BNB or a large position in altcoins.
2. Trading style
There are various trading styles in the entire market. You may see that blogger A’s trading system is great and brings good returns. You may also see that blogger B’s trading system is completely opposite to A’s, which also brings good returns. However, if you combine them together and use them in a confused manner, you will end up suffering losses when you put them into practice in the market.
Left side, right side, short-term shock, long-term trend, various trading styles have their own characteristics, but the key is to suit your own style. From my point of view, there are two types of individual traders: part-time and full-time.
Why is it divided like this?
If you are not working full-time on web2 and still have to go to work, you basically have no time to trade, so your trading cannot be called trading, it can only be called investment. If it is investment, you cannot use the concept of trading to look at the target. Choose value targets and enter with definite main force accumulation behavior, and leave the rest to time. You work hard at your web2 job, and wait time for your web3 investment to give you a return. Such people are suitable for long-term trend investment and do not need to pay attention to short-term market behavior.
Full-time web3 traders need to think carefully about whether they are traders or investors. Investors are just like what is mentioned above, they just follow the long-term trend, follow the main force to absorb funds, and wait for time to pay off. Traders must learn secondary knowledge. The three major technical schools (Dow, Gann, and Wyckoff) must be read carefully and mastered. Other technical theories derived from naked K, entanglement theory, harmonics, etc. that everyone has seen can also be understood. Learning these may not make money, but it will definitely reduce losses.
After clarifying whether you are investing or trading, you can determine your risk preference based on your own financial situation. Don't blindly follow bloggers. The content output by each blogger is based on his own style and philosophy. It is useful, but not necessarily suitable for you.
Now, should you buy BTC or buy altcoins? The answer is up to you. At this stage, I am going all-in on altcoins. Later, I will talk about the structure of altcoins and which ones can be bought from a trend perspective and which ones should not be bought (the ones that cannot be bought are only from a trend perspective, but you can also find short-term support and resistance buying and selling points by yourself and take advantage of the waves).
3. From a trend perspective, what can and cannot be bought as counterfeit goods?
The distinction in this question mainly depends on the trading volume (demand) and Wyckoff's trend structure.
A. Don’t buy: (From a trend perspective, these targets can also generate profits by trading in waves or oscillating, depending on your style. I personally think it is unnecessary to waste time and money by trading them in the short term)
1) The big structure has been shipping (distributing, redistributing) + N unlocked junk: DYDX, ATOM, MAGIC all meet the big cycle distribution structure. These junk targets have limited space and can only fluctuate in a large range. For example, DYDX also has a 100% range in the large range, but it is impossible to see the previous high and second high of the cycle. If the profit range is just this small, it is better to do BTC.
Reason: The weekly structure is all distribution
In the accumulation structure, there cannot be so much demand at a high level, and there is no subsequent breakthrough of the starting point of panic selling. Therefore, there is no accumulation at the bottom, and it is impossible to see this target return to the previous or second highest historical high.
Although there was demand to enter when the market fell in April, the entire structure was definitely a distribution, and plus it was not unlocked, it was a pure junk target.
2) The daily structure has just completed the entire distribution cycle (high distribution + low re-distribution), and the accumulation stage has not yet appeared or completed: ARB, OP
Reason: The accumulation structure is not obvious. Although there is a large amount of support when the stock falls, the price goes back to the bottom. If the main force wants to trade the stock, it will not let the leeks buy at the bottom at the same cost as the main force. Therefore, although there is a large amount of support when the stock falls, there is no complete accumulation structure (the above distribution takes 117 days, and the next accumulation cannot be less than 117 days, and now it is 42 days). It can only be judged that there may be a subsequent distribution in the rebound.
3) VC coins distributed when they go online have been declining with no volume, with SAGA as a typical example. I have posted before about how to buy these VC coins. Click the link below to see. Twitter can only post four pictures, and the next two are reserved for copycats that can be purchased.
B, what you can buy:
1) There is a complete weekly accumulation structure, and the decline in April has obvious support above the starting point of panic selling: DOGE FIL and many others
Reason: The weekly accumulation structure is complete, with a breakthrough in the starting point of accumulation and a decline back to the starting point of accumulation to re-enter the historical level of demand, indicating that the main force has been protecting the market and does not allow the leeks to buy at the main cost price.
2) The distribution was online, but there was a historical level of panic selling: AEVO, etc. These can be tracked and bought at the late stage of accumulation, rather than buying now.
Reason: There was a panic sell-off with a historical level of trading volume. The main force intervened in this target for the first time and was interested in the coin at this price. Therefore, the subsequent accumulation structure that was completed by the main force was Lafite.
That’s all. Thank you for reading. If you are interested in Wyckoff and volume-price, you can read the teaching collection post. Twitter: @yekoikoi
