BTC that has not been moved for a year can be considered as long-term BTC holders. The number of BTC that has not been moved for a year has been decreasing. Specifically, it has been decreasing since January, from the highest 70.3% at that time to 65.7%, a decrease of 4.6% of BTC, or nearly 1 million BTC.

However, this is not a bad thing. From the previous round of bull market, when BTC was at 11,000, that is, during the main uptrend, the number of BTC that had not moved for a year was also declining, and it continued to decline until the end of the bull market.

The amount of BTC in the exchange

Since the beginning of this year, the amount of BTC in the exchange has been continuously flowing out. The largest amount of BTC in the exchange this year was on January 23, reaching a peak of 2.49 million, and has basically been in a continuous net outflow since then. Although there was a wave of net inflow at the end of April, based on the stock of 2.32 million on May 22, the exchange has accumulated a net outflow of 170,000 BTC.

MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score is defined as (market value - realized market value) / standard deviation of market value. It can be simply understood that when the MVRV Z-Score is large, the market profit level is high. When the MVRV Z-Score is relatively small, the market profit is very low. When it is negative, the market as a whole is losing money.

Judging from historical data, MVRV Z-Score has a good guiding significance in escaping the top and bottoming out. There are obvious signals at the tops in 2017 and May 2021. Similarly, we can also know the bottoming out in December 2018, March 12, 2020, and the end of 2022.

Judging from the MVRV Z-Score, BTC has not reached the top range. In other words, it is still a certain distance away from the top range.

Realized and unrealized profits

In the above figure, the blue column is realized profit, and the red curve is the relative unrealized profit. In 2018, Coinmetircs engineer Antoine Le Calvez proposed the concept of "Realized Capitalization", which is based on the price of each UTXO at the last activity. We can simply regard realized profit as profit. It can be seen that at the beginning of this year, when the price was 30,000, a large number of profit chips appeared. The highest daily amount reached 4.6 billion US dollars, which has exceeded the largest profit in the 21-year bull market.

In contrast, in the bull market of 2021, during the main rising wave of BTC, at the position of 30,000 to 40,000, a huge profit was realized on the chain. After that, BTC continued to rise to 67,000. This represents an adjustment of BTC on the way up, and repeated turnover.

In addition, we should also note that in the past two days, BTC has reached 70,000 again, and the market has not seen huge profit-taking. It can be said that the chips that want to be sold are basically completed.

Relative unrealized profit (RUP) is a measure of the overall profitability of a BTC. From the historical data, it can also be used very effectively. At the top of the bull market in 2013, 2017 and 2021, RUP reached 0.7. Now RUP is only 0.58, which is far from the signal of reaching the top.