As expected, Bitcoin fell below $29,500. Yesterday, we analyzed the strength of the long and short positions based on the clues in the daily chart. Based on these clues, we determined that the probability of the daily chart falling below the shock range is relatively high.
The market fluctuated for more than a month and finally changed. From the beginning, the bulls were relatively strong, and then the bears began to become stronger after the fluctuations, and finally fell below the fluctuation range and chose to go downward.
Yesterday's negative line below $29,500 was a healthy decline. Yesterday's decline also means that Bitcoin's 8-month-long upward trend has begun to change since the start of the bull market at the end of November 2022.
The market was not optimistic about the market in the past eight months. People were bearish and believed that the rise was just a rebound. They formed a bearish mentality that a sharp drop would begin after the rebound. Therefore, many investors realized the rise of Bitcoin from $15,487 to $30,000 only after a while.
Now, people have gradually begun to believe that a decline is an opportunity to enter the market, and have formed a bull market mentality that after each decline, the market will break new highs again. In fact, all of these are traps created by the main players.
The fact that Bitcoin fell below $29,500 this time is fundamentally different from the previous few months when it fell to $19,500 and $25,000. The entire trend before was in the bullish uptrend stage, and it will definitely rise after the correction. This is why every time a big correction occurred in the first half of the year, the market was in panic, but I still reminded that the trend has not ended.
But the current trend has begun to change. When analyzing the weekly chart yesterday, I also mentioned the emergence of dangerous signals. The cathode generates yang, and the anode generates yin. This is a rule. If you can identify the clues of the rule, you can identify the turning points of the rise and fall in the entire trend.
Bitcoin has fallen below the support of $29,500 with a large volume. It should continue to go down. Yesterday’s analysis reminded us that there is a relatively strong support around $28,000 below.
It is highly likely that Bitcoin will not continue to fall in the future. For example, after it falls to around 28,000 and stops falling, it will rebound again. It should fluctuate back and forth around 30,000, because the main force wants to create an illusion for the market, making us think that after stopping the decline, it will be like in the first half of the year, and there will be a sharp rise after each decline.
Just like the rising market in the first half of the year, there will be a sharp correction after each rise, creating the illusion that the market cannot go any higher, making us think that the market has peaked and will fall sharply. Because we failed to judge that the bear market bottomed out at $15,487, the market broke new highs step by step, and we missed the opportunity to layout.
If you fail to identify the bottom and miss the market, you will simply not make any money. But if the top appears and you don't identify it immediately, or you realize it too late, you still believe that it will rise sharply after the decline and then enter the market. You will lose a lot of money if you buy at the bottom or at the top of the mountain.
Bitcoin will fluctuate back and forth in the future, and the sub-mainstream with good performance will still have market, but don’t be too greedy, because the overall market trend has changed and the risk has increased. Therefore, friends who are doing short-term and mid-term trading must stop when they see good results, and those who are doing long-term trading must not use up all their bullets. It is better to have positions to prevent missing out. You must have funds to wait for the bull market to start in the future, so that you can attack or defend.
At such a critical moment, I sincerely hope that everyone can be rational and not blindly follow the trend. The bull market is getting closer and closer to us. It is very important to take every step correctly. Only by linking one thing to another can we seize the great opportunities in the future!
