Let's jump straight to conclusions. For those who want to understand the logic, there will be an analysis below. It turned out big.

BRIEFLY:

According to our expectations, there are changes in BTC. The main one is that the#BTCprice correction predicted on May 20-21 may take on not the format of a sharp long squeeze (downward sweep and V-shaped reversal), but the format of a correction for a whole week. With range elements. And everything will be decided at the volume level of $67,088. After the end of this correction, we are still waiting for a new ATH.

NEXT - analysis of the Volatility Index and price chart.

Let's start with the Index. 

After a long range of the BTC Price Volatility Index, it may show growth in the coming days. The lateral movement began on May 14. The index went into one of the longest sideways movements in recent months.

As a result, the forecast with the end of the Index correction, which we gave on May 13, worked out. But the forecast for a reversal from May 14-15 is not. 

At the same time, the price of BTC showed an upward movement during this time due to two daily candles on May 15 and 20, 8% each. Let us remind you that we wrote again on May 13:

“The range is ending, the BTC price is preparing daily candles with more than 8-10% movement. We expect the index to rise above 11.”

The BTC price range has indeed ended, the price showed the expected minimum strength of impulses, BUT without the growth of the Index. "At minimum wages."

Whether the exit from the range of the Index itself is confirmed will be shown by the next 2-3 day candles. That is, Friday and weekend candles. But it is already clear that when the delayed growth of the Index begins, there will be very strong movements of both the Index and prices. While the MACD of the daily TF on the Index chart gave a bullish crossover, the RSI on the Index chart has not yet tested the 50 level.

What movement in the price of BTC do we expect?

So far, there are no signs of buyer strength on#BTCand a downward structure has emerged on the daily timeframe. Today and over the weekend it will be confirmed or broken. There is a decline, the start of which we indicated before the high on May 20 and at the high on May 21. If the downward price structure continues, the#BTCrate may continue to decline until May 31-June 1. But we are in a bull market and it is worth being prepared for the possibility of a sharp break in the downward structure.

Plus, a reduction or range for the coming days does NOT cancel our expectation of an ATH update in May-June, and not somewhere in the fall, as many expect. The expectation is definitely valid as long as the price is above the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $64,794). During the current decline, the price may just come to its test and there it will be important to evaluate the reaction of buyers and sellers.

For the BTC rate to grow to the new ATH, it is important to maintain two supports:

- Volume level $67,088. As long as the price on the day closes above this rate, it is still possible to see a quick development of the full target of the P&P with the breakdown of the descending structure on the day. Especially in case of a sharp upward reversal of the#BTCPrice Volatility Index. This is an early reversal scenario, but there is no certainty about it yet. Especially with such a bearish candle on the weekly TF as it is now. We give this scenario a 30-40% chance.

- EMA 50 day TF (currently $64,794). In this variant, the main thing is to close above the body of the daily candle; squeezes below are allowed. For example, to the volume level of $64,120, the importance of which has been written about SO many times since the beginning of May, when the reversal was identified. Now this is important support. And next to it there is also an upward trend since December 5, 2023 (until February 26, 2024 there was resistance, now there is support for the uptrend). Indicated by a dotted line. We give 60-70% probability for this scenario.

TOTAL: 

The test of the second support in the coming week is still a priority scenario for us in the new conditions. Including because all possible positive movements around the spot Ethereum ETF are essentially unimportant for BTC. Moreover, it is a competing tool.

After working out the correction, we are waiting for a new ATH. Only consolidation with a retest (!) under the EMA of the 50-day TF will force you to give up waiting and reconsider the scenario.

$BTC