What is the difference between the environments in which Ethereum ETF vs Bitcoin ETF was passed?
First, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, Bitcoin had already experienced a moderate rise in mid-2023 and an accelerated rise from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. Judging from the current price trend of Ethereum, institutions are unlikely to have prepared seed funds. This is good for Ethereum.
Second, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, the market expected a rate cut in March, with optimistic sentiment and active funds. At present, the market expects a rate cut from September to December, with relatively calm sentiment and relatively tight funds. This is bad for Ethereum.
Third, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, Bitcoin Inscription had experienced a small peak of hype, and the sentiment in the market was high. At present, there seems to be no new narrative in the Ethereum-related sectors, and the related tokens have risen but the sentiment is obviously not as good as Bitcoin Inscription. This affects the possibility of an outbreak of Ethereum market sentiment.
Fourth, the Bitcoin ETF was passed on the same day, while the Ethereum ETF was passed in stages. This also affects the possibility of an outbreak of Ethereum market sentiment.
Therefore, the next stage is for the SEC and institutions to continue to prepare relevant documents, and for institutions to start preparing seed funds, plus the impact of the macro environment, and the impact of phased adoption on sentiment. Next, Ethereum may have a mild rise, but it is too early for a big outbreak. Other tokens, including tokens in Ethereum-related sectors, need to be faced with caution (it is not ruled out that Ethereum will repeat the history of Bitcoin in the second and third quarters of last year). Be careful around June 12-13, because the United States will announce CPI data and interest rate decisions, which may have an impact on market sentiment.
