📝5/20 ~ 5/26 This week’s key information updates:
"Many participants are willing to tighten policy if necessary, and a few may support keeping the pace of balance sheet reduction unchanged." -- Federal Reserve
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this morning released more hawkish information, causing a blow to the risk asset market. As mentioned before, the Fed still needs to observe the performance of inflation data in the next few months before it can give a clearer signal of cutting interest rates. We can directly understand that the high interest rate environment will last longer, and whether asset prices can continue to rise depends on growth potential and liquidity.
remain optimistic! 😇 In June, the ECB will have a higher probability of cutting interest rates and the Fed's balance sheet reduction will slow down, which will help release more liquidity and is a fundamental support in addition to the ETH ETF news. Of course, the negative news that can be expected in June is the disappointment of inflation. The CPI data in May is not expected to be very good, which may also have a short-term impact on the market.
This week's key economic data can focus on the preliminary performance of the May PMI (currently expected to be flat) and the consumer confidence index (expected to rise). If the two data perform better, it will boost the US dollar (and suppress interest rate cut expectations).
👂Let’s talk about $ETH ETF’s significant impact on the market:
1. PoS crypto-assets are recognized as non-security assets. This precedent model will provide a reliable reference for other cryptocurrencies to be adopted by traditional platforms;
2. The financial composability of ETH products will be truly connected with the DeFi world. This is currently difficult for BTC products to achieve. The maturity of the Ethereum ecosystem and participants can better cooperate with traditional finance.
The final decision on the VanEck ETH ETF will be announced early tomorrow morning. At present, it seems that the probability of passing is very high, but there is still a difference between specifically approving exchange listings or directly listing and trading products. The ETF listing process is: 19b-4 document approval -> S-1 fund registration approval -> listing and trading. Regardless of whether only the 19b-4 document is approved or both are approved, it is expected that the market will begin to re-price ETH and the price floor will be raised.
📊 Take a look at the derivatives data: the capital is healthy, the capital utilization rate increases with the price increase, the overall market sentiment is optimistic, the sector rotation is not obvious, and more are concentrated in the memes and ETH sectors.$BTC The bullish momentum continues to be released, but the giant chip whale is taking profits.
Data Source: Blave.org, TradingEconomic
