📝10/21 ~ 10/27 This week's key information update:

Key decisions for Q4 are on the horizon in the coming weeks! The Federal Reserve's beige book report on Thursday, discussions from the Bank of Japan, and PMI data from various countries are the key points to watch this week. Additionally, next week there will be the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting and the U.S. elections at the beginning of November! 🐂🎢

Given the current market atmosphere, Trump has a strong chance of winning, and this time the Republican Party may win a majority in Congress (as shown in Chart 1, commonly referred to as a Red Sweep). This will make it easier for Trump’s policies to be implemented, such as those related to energy, tariffs, and cryptocurrencies (FIT21), which may see positive progress next year. Moreover, the U.S. debt deficit may continue to expand, meaning the U.S. government will need to issue more debt to meet its spending goals. Long-term U.S. bonds have already reflected these expectations (Chart 2).

If the Republicans win (especially under Trump's leadership), significant tax cuts for individuals and businesses are expected, a stronger enforcement of dovish monetary policy, and further incentives for companies through the elimination of regulatory red tape. At the same time, we can see that the market expects spending under Trump to be more than double that of Harris (Chart 3). In this scenario, it is anticipated that the stock market and commodities will perform better than bonds (including cryptocurrencies), making 2025 potentially very exciting.

Recently, the U.S. dollar has been boosted by weak economic data from Europe, with institutions expecting the Eurozone and the UK to possibly cut interest rates again in November. The CPI data from the EU and the UK fell to new lows in September, nearing policy targets (Charts 4, 5). The next step is to compare whose economy is performing better to determine the strength of the exchange rate (worth paying attention to this Thursday). In Japan, the October data showed that trade exports were significantly impacted by exchange rates, not meeting expectations, while other data such as unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and inflation showed good performance (Chart 6). Currently, institutions mostly expect that due to political instability and the U.S. elections, the probability of an interest rate hike at the end of this month is low. Thus, attention should be paid to the central bank's speech on Thursday. If the Bank of Japan maintains the interest rate at the end of the month, it would have a positive impact on the market; conversely, if there is another rate hike, there may be short-term risks of a decline.

Coinbase's institutional report reveals the outlook for the fourth quarter, with Ethereum regaining market share in transaction fee revenue.... For more, follow my TG channel @kenjisrealm_c

😛 #UptoberBTC70K?

The overall contract data of Notcoin is bearish, and it is obvious that some consolidation is needed before there is a chance to start an upward trend. 👇🏻The short-term trend of $NOT can be analyzed from the four data below:

1️⃣ HC: The concentration of shorts has increased. You need to pay attention to whether the concentration of shorts continues to decline and hits a new low. If the concentration of shorts drops to the previous low or falls below the previous low, there may be an opportunity to start to build a bottom; conversely, if the concentration does not If it goes lower, it will be a stronger bullish signal.

2️⃣ WH: The whale alarm shows that whales are biased towards the short side. They have opened short positions and some whales have begun to close long positions. You will not go wrong by following the whales.

3️⃣ SM: The kinetic energy changes too much, does it feel weird? In fact, this is not the case. This is the pattern before the market bottoms out and starts to turn long, so the next change in chips is the key. If you want to go long NOT, you should start paying attention!

4️⃣ TI: More retail investors are starting to go long....they may have to kill retail investors' chips first...🫣

Data source:blave.org
#Notcoin👀🔥 #NOT🔥🔥🔥

$BTC The chips remain high, and the chips begin to deviate. There may be a price correction that drives the chips to repair. The giant whale has not made any obvious moves, and retail investors are chasing more. $ETH The concentration of multi-chip chips has decreased. It seems that whales have begun to short at 2770 ~ 2,800. Each sector has its own strength and weakness. Strong sectors today such as NFT, contract DEX, etc., while most meme sectors have weakened and corrected.

Data source:blave.org
#BTC☀

The #meme sector has been strong recently, but the sector will eventually rotate. Here we use the data of four coins to compare the strength:

- $BANANA It started to weaken after the well-known KOL called the market❓From the data point of view, the concentration of bulls began to decline after reaching a new high, and the giant whales took obvious profits. Although the momentum is biased towards the long side, if the giant whales continue to sell goods, the momentum will It may decline at any time, and the bears will have the opportunity to seize the momentum.

- $POPCAT A similar situation occurred with the popular meme coin in the past few weeks. The chips were weaker than BANANA. The chips changed rapidly after the price reached a high level, and the whale shipments were very obvious.

The above two are both cases of early strength but recent decline. Compared with mainstream currencies, $BTC $ETH has significantly more chips and has not yet weakened. Giant whales are more long on these two currencies.

Do you understand? If you are a short-term trader, you can use contract data to examine the currency data, and further eliminate the weak and retain the strong, and find trading opportunities! ✅

Data source:blave.org
#MemeCoinTrending #BTCBreaks66K #GrayscaleConsiders35Cryptos

Compared with last week, the current market trend is obviously higher, and from the data point of view, the bulls are currently in a very good position. Why? 👇🏻

1️⃣ Chip surface: The chip concentration of most mainstream currencies remains bullish, that is, a few people/winners stand on the long side and retail investors stand on the short side, which is conducive to the development of the long side. $BTC $ETH We haven’t seen any signs of winners starting to make profits yet... Only some of last week’s strong currencies have shown similar signs, which I will share in the next article (such as $POPCAT, $BANANA ).

2️⃣ Funding: Traders actively use leverage trading to regain confidence in the market outlook. This generally occurs after the rising market begins.

3️⃣ Emotional aspect: Market sentiment has emerged from the gloom, and the pessimism in the market for more than three months since July has begun to recover. Traders are buying contract positions in large quantities (BTC OI has returned to high water levels), reflecting this phenomenon.

4️⃣ Kinetic side:#bitcoinThe energy of the short side squeezing the kinetic energy is decreasing. When this phenomenon occurred in the past, it could help the bulls attack.

💡In summary, the short-term bull situation is good, traders have regained confidence in the market, and funds may begin to shift to mainstream currencies. I will use the filter on the blave website to select tokens for operation! You can also try it 😀

Data source:blave.org

#BTCUptober #10MTradersLeague #MemeCoinTrending

Market sentiment began to recover, $BTC chips remained concentrated on the long side, whales closed their short positions and began to go long, and the momentum of the short side also began to decrease. In terms of data, this is a good signal, which is conducive to the long attack! 🐂

The situation is the same for ETH. At present, the sectors with better performance in copycats include modular blockchain, #AI , and stablecoin protocols. In terms of whales, the meme currency $BRETT $BOME is most obviously favored by whales.

Keep an eye on data performance! Data source:blave.org
#moonbix #NeiroOnBinance

Will the market weaken again....🤔 Testing 61,000? Or testing 58,000? We need to be very careful! Maybe there will be a direction out today or tomorrow!

💡The data surface is currently worrying...👇🏻

$BTC The concentration of chips has turned short, and it is suspected that the whale closed its long position last night. Retail investors began to go long. The recent meme hot spot $POPCAT has also seen the phenomenon of chips turning short and the whale closing its long position. The direction of Blave's comprehensive data shows that the current trend is neutral to bearish, which is weaker than yesterday.

Data source:blave.org
#WeAreAllSatoshi #BNBChainMemecoins #moonbix

📝10/07 ~ 10/13 This week’s key information updates:

Affected by the comments of Federal Reserve officials, market expectations for a sharp interest rate cut this year have begun to cool down. The appointment of a new Japanese Prime Minister and the war in the Middle East have put risk assets under pressure again. The impact of the war is short-term (unless it expands again). The new Japanese Prime Minister has also expressed support for the policy. Normalization, leaving only the need for adjustment in the stock market may create additional downward pressure, which is what we need to pay attention to. Crypto bulls only need east wind. I think it will start to strengthen at the end of October, and the bulls are coming soon! 🐂

Since October, Fed officials and Powell have followed each other and maintained the same rhetoric. You can see the key points I compiled from Figure 1. Basically, officials agree that the current overall economic situation in the United States is healthy and only needs to maintain the current growth. In other words, just take your time. Unless the data (inflation/unemployment) are not as good as expected, the current policy path needs to be changed. Simply put, the U.S. economy is stable, and now we must pay more attention to every data change! Then wait for the election.

Institutional traders have also lowered their expectations for an interest rate cut during the year (Figure 2) since the officials’ talk. Most currently believe that the rate will be cut by up to 50 basis points this year. Let’s review what we shared in the past few weeks (Figure 3). After the interest rate cut, it is actually close to the neutral interest rate level. The effective interest rate in mid-September was about 4.83% vs. the current benchmark interest rate range of 4.75~5%. As long as inflation continues If it declines steadily and the economy is in good condition (the unemployment rate does not worsen and productivity does not decline), then it is OK for the Fed to lower interest rates in line with the trend!

Today I shared my views on the market on Twitter. You can take a look at https://x.com/kenjisrealm/status/1843565537349251505. The actions of the Bank of Japan in mid-to-late October are also worthy of attention. I personally think that the Bank of Japan’s meeting at the end of the month This will be a turning point. If the Bank of Japan strengthens its expectation that interest rates may be raised again this year, the short-term liquidity contraction will be reversed. In addition, the US stock Q3 report was also released during that period.

The key events this week are the Fed meeting minutes and CPI and PPI data on Thursday and Friday.

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Like, help, follow, share more, thanks! 😛

#WeAreAllSatoshi #BTCReboundsAfterFOMC

$BTC The concentration of bullish chips has dropped again, the giant whales have closed their long positions, and the momentum of the short side has continued. There is still the possibility of further decline in the short term, so be careful not to chase the high and kill the low.

The altcoin market has begun to rotate into the garbage/unpopular sectors - games, social networking, tools, and the Chinese currency $CFX has also begun to pull back significantly. Today, weak currencies such as $HMSTR can be traded at high altitudes. I wish you all smooth trading!

Data source:blave.org
#WeAreAllSatoshi #moonbix

$BTC BTC long chips fell rapidly today, the whales turned to short selling obviously, SOL long chips were relatively stable, while ETH chips fell overall.

It is currently in the stage of copycat market, and several copycat coins have been affected by the news, such as $ENA , $CFX , etc.

Today, give priority to shorting weak currencies, such as MEW, MKR, NEIRO, etc.

Data source:blave.org
#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #BTCReboundsAfterFOMC

The bullish index dropped slightly today, and the concentration of long chips in mainstream currencies $BTC $ETH has dropped a lot. It is worth continuing to pay attention to whether the market trend will begin to correct? 🙂 Expect a clear direction from the market possibly after tomorrow’s PCE data…

The sectors that have performed strongly recently include #AI and #CrossChainInteroperability . Today, you can pay attention to @Ton Network ecological currency $TON $BANANA $NOT. Some giant whales have begun to intervene, and the chips have become stronger!

Data source:blave.org
#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #NeiroOnBinance

From the data point of view, $NEIROETH becomes stronger, while $NEIRO becomes weaker. In NEIROETH, the chips began to be concentrated on long positions, and whales began to do long positions and close short positions; in NEIRO, whales began to close long positions in large quantities. It seems that whales are showing signs of selling NEIRO and becoming like ETH NEIRO.

#NeiroEthereum NEIROETH strongly broke through the 0.09 level yesterday and continued to fluctuate higher. According to the current short-term pattern, NEIROETH is likely to break through 0.10 in the United States time and challenge the 0.104~0.108 pressure zone. Keep paying attention!

Data source:blave.org
#NeiroOnBinance

Copycat time! Several altcoins performed strongly today, such as UXLINK $NEAR $RONIN , etc. The Blave filter is quite easy to use and can help me quickly filter out strong/weak currencies for operation.

The bullish index weakened slightly today and looks to be consolidating after a strong uptrend. $BTC The long concentration of chips increased again today after shrinking yesterday. Retail investors actively shorted, SOL began to perform strongly, and ETH was slightly weaker. In terms of operation, it is best to go long on dips and look for strong copycats.

Data source:blave.org
#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #BTCReboundsAfterFOMC

$BTC The chips have been highly concentrated on the long side for five consecutive days. The overall market funds continue to be scarce and multi-party momentum is increasing. Can BTC break through the previous wave high and stand firm at 65,000 this week?

From the history of #BTC☀ chip concentration, it is found that BTC has experienced five consecutive days of high bull concentration five times since 2023, namely during the rebound in early and mid-year 2023, the rise in Q4 in 2023, and the post-2024 BTC ETF market...

🛑 Key point: Whenever a similar situation occurs, the chip concentration will return to normal, and the market will subsequently fluctuate or have a certain degree of correction. Among them, the most similar chip status to the current situation is June 2023 and February 2024. These times, extreme short concentration quickly transformed into long concentration...

💡 Does this mean that a short-term shock or correction is about to occur? These days are very critical, continue to observe changes in the data!

At present... BTC's short-term chip concentration has begun to deviate... $SOL The chip surface has weakened. 🧐 It seems that there is a giant whale laying out empty orders.

Data source:blave.org

#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #BTCReboundsAfterFOMC

@ListaDAO ($LISTA ) will unlock 24.68 million tokens today, worth approximately $8.66 million, accounting for 12.31% of the circulating supply... Currently, it can be found through data that most traders are actively shorting...

#LISTA The chips are relatively dispersed and bearish. Judging from the whale alarm and the strength of long and short, the whales have a lot of signs of being long today, and ordinary traders continue to place short orders. It seems that the price of LISTA token will be affected after unlocking. Quite a bit of downward pressure.

Data source:blave.org, TokenUnlocks

The concentration of BTC chips has increased, the giant whales are obviously long, and the bull momentum has begun to exert force. In the future, you can pay attention to whether the amount of chips will further increase.

ETH is also in the stage of concentration of long chips. In today's market, you can pay more attention to strong currencies and follow the trend. For example, the strong currencies I filtered out using the filter (the targets for whales to do long) include $TIA $STX $SEI , etc...

For example, #SEI After the Federal Reserve meeting, the concentration of long chips increased significantly, and the whales were obviously long. The phenomenon of chip distribution has not been seen yet, and it deserves follow-up attention!

Data source:blave.org
#Token2049 FOMC

Market participants are pricing in a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, which seems unreasonable to me. After the Jackson Hole data was released, U.S. economic data showed strong business growth and consumer spending, but the labor market was slightly disappointed. A 25 basis point rate cut is healthier for current market conditions and allows for more flexibility to adjust as future data changes.

Just found an interesting clue... $BTC performance this year has been more correlated with commodities than stocks. If we take a positive view on commodity prices following a shift to a quantitative easing cycle, what impact do you think this will have on cryptocurrency prices? 🤨

#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #Token2049 FOMC

🐶 NEIRO The battle for the new dog king has been going on since the trading pair was launched on Binance. $NEIRO and #NEIROETH have been going their separate ways in a tacit understanding... one goes up and the other goes down...

At present, $NEIRO has begun to see a weakening of the long chips, and it seems that giant whales are beginning to place short orders; while the concentration of short chips in $NEIROETH has slightly decreased, and it seems that someone is buying at a low point...

Data source:blave.org

$BTC Over the weekend, bullish chips were closed by a large number of long orders from giant whales, and the chip concentration turned from long to neutral. Although the squeezing momentum continues to shrink, the performance of the data in the past year does not necessarily mean that it will start to rebound again, and we need to continue to pay attention. The chips change. The financial aspect still shows that traders are conservative about the market outlook.

$ETH is relatively weak (SOL is even weaker), the short chips are concentrated, and the whales are obviously short. Most cottages have similar situations. In recent days, $STORJ and $BIGTIME, which have been relatively strong, have also begun to see bullish chip divergence (weaker performance).

Data source:blave.org
#BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #BinanceLaunchpoolCATI

Have you built or rebalanced your cryptocurrency portfolio? For cryptocurrency believers, now is a good time to think about how to recoup your losses and put your money into profitable bets. I believe the next phase of the advance is close, although we may see another pullback in price.

I have always stood by my thesis that projects with #RealYield will perform better in the next phase, when the TradFi-DeFi yield gap shrinks. So I gathered recent cash flow/revenue data and wanted to see any desirable targets I might have missed.

Tokens were ranked based on their 30-day income, and an efficiency score was designed, adjusting the supply ratio and revenue margin to judge the revenue-generating performance of the token. The higher the score, the higher the revenue-generating efficiency. The above is a summary of my work, I hope it can bring you some reference value.

1️⃣ Profit categories: chain, DEX, derivatives. It's not difficult to understand. If you are over-allocated to categories other than those listed above, then I would suggest some rebalancing.

2️⃣ Derivatives protocols are the most efficient category for generating revenue. I think derivatives protocols will not only benefit from a low interest rate environment, but they will also gain additional advantages if regulators impose tighter restrictions on centralized exchanges, coupled with a healthy token economics. Like $GNS $GMX did recently on Tokenomics.

3️⃣In addition to considering returns, choosing tokens with large circulation and low fully diluted market value may win more at #altseason , and it is easier to stimulate upward price pressure when the valuation opinions of the market converge. $CAKE $DODO $MGP is on the list, along with newbie $BANANA.

Starting in mid-2023, new narratives and memes triggered the pulse of investors, and the biggest gains were made during this period, most of which were obviously quite short-lived. The winner is not always the winner.

I've seen some debates about the evolution of the industry, and this is a sign that projects that truly create value will stand out! As more professional investors join in, and when people shift into rational mode, guess what happens?

💡 Investing in cryptocurrency requires multi-dimensional analysis, and simply judging returns may not be comprehensive or correct.For the sake of simplicity, the token base is ignored here.
#Debate2024