With Bitcoin currently trading just 4.2% below its high of $737,000 two months ago and the halving event now in the past, buying pressure could be on the rise.
Open interest suggests that prices have more room to rise.
Assessing previous peaks and forecasting future
The 90-day moving average of the Short Term Holder Spending Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) peaked at 1.064 in January 2018 and 1.057 in March 2021. This suggests that the STH profit peak range is 1.064-1.057.
At press time, STH SOPR’s 90-day moving average is 1.015.
This suggests that there is more room to go up and the top is most likely not in. Moreover, there are 291 days between the SOPR 90DMA hitting 1.015 and the cycle peak.
However, in the 2020-21 cycle, the intervals between the same values are only 105 days. Therefore, we could be in for a bull run of 3 to 12 months.
The 7-day moving average of holdings has only risen by 9% recently.
By comparison, January 2024 saw a 20% increase, and multiple OI 7DMA changes in 2021 were also close to 20%.
Taken together, both observations support the idea that the Bitcoin market has only just begun its rally.
What are the resistance levels to watch out for after crossing the ATH?
Both the local range (purple) and imbalance (white) have been convincingly broken. If this momentum continues, the high of $73,700 could be swept away soon.
The RSI has yet to break above 70, which would be a strong signal that BTC bullish dominance is approaching all-time highs.
The CMF rose above +0.05, indicating strong capital inflows and increased demand.
The Fibonacci Extension levels (light yellow) show $792,000, $88,100, and $97,000 as the next resistance levels to watch.
(Personal opinion, not a recommendation)
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