Seeing the price of BTC climb above $68,000, this price is quite consistent with recent funds, sentiment and even ETFs. When mentioning ETF data before, I also mentioned that the data that have a major impact on the macro during the week are two data from the University of Michigan on Friday, especially the one-year inflation expectations. Although many Fed officials have spoken in the past few days, they will not have much impact on the market, and the market will still be dominated by gaming data.
Nvidia's financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday morning. Although it is not closely related to the currency market, it still has a certain impact on the upper-level liquidity. After all, the banner of Ai still depends mainly on Nvidia. We have also discussed the liquidity of funds before. For #BTC and even the entire crypto market, the priority of funds is relatively low. If the U.S. stock market rises well, the overflow funds flowing into the currency market will also increase.
The most critical data may still be the approval of the#ETHspot ETF on May 23. As long as they meet the basic requirements, they will all be approved. If one fails, the reason for failure will apply to all applicants, so it is highly likely that none of them will pass. Therefore, there is basically no situation where one fails in May but passes in August. According to the trend of BTC at that time, there is a high probability that there will be a clear answer between 2 am and 4 am on May 24.
Of course, the results of most of the current games are failures, so the price of ETH has certain expectations. If it is really rejected, it is possible that the price will fall to a certain extent, but it is unlikely to fall by half. And if#Ethereumis not passed, it is unlikely that a third ETF will be applied for and passed in 2024. In addition, it may depend on the situation of the Republican Party taking office after the election.
At present, some overseas analysts have said that 19b-4 may be passed first, and S-1/S-2 may not be passed first or continue to be postponed. This possibility does exist, but it is not great. When talking about BTC, I introduced the difference between 19b-4 and S-1/S-3. I will talk about the details later. Generally speaking, spot ETFs need both to be approved. Now the final date of May 23 is actually for 19b-4. The approval of 19b-4 is not equivalent to the approval of spot ETFs. S-1/S-3 must also be approved. If I remember correctly, the approval period for S-1/S-3 seems to be 260 days.
If 19b-4 is passed, it will be good news for the market even if S-1/S-3 is further delayed. Therefore, as long as 19b-4 is not directly rejected, there may be a carnival in the market. After all, many friends do not know that the approval of 19b-4 does not mean the approval of S-1/S-3.
Returning to the data of BTC, there is actually nothing special to say. It is still the same old routine. After all, for Monday, there is only a certain amount of flow in the three hours after the opening of the US stock market. The other 21 hours are low liquidity. Therefore, it can be clearly seen that the data on Monday is not much better than that on Sunday, and it is even worse than the liquidity on Saturday. Early investors still have no intention of large-scale turnover. The stock of BTC on the exchange is also continuing to decrease, and it has once again refreshed the lowest stock in nearly six years. This means that the current investor sentiment is relatively stable and the purchasing power is not bad. Of course, the premise is that there is no major problem in the market. Earlier today, I also mentioned that the plane incident has no impact on US inflation and there is no need to over-interpret it.
