1. Photos of the scene are already available on X. It can be preliminarily determined that it was not shot down by a missile because the wreckage is scattered in a relatively concentrated area, but it is still impossible to rule out other forms of assassination.
2. The vegetation at the scene showed signs of burns, which is consistent with the thermal imaging images taken by Turkey's Akıncı drone. This shows that the plane caught fire after the crash and the possibility of survival is basically zero.
3. According to the latest pictures, the vegetation at the crash site was collapsed on a large scale, indicating that the plane rolled over and then fell apart after hitting the ground.
4. The fact that no one was found at the scene using a thermal imager means there is a high probability that there is no hope. The strange thing is that just two hours ago, the news said that Akıncı discovered the crash site using thermal imaging, which means that Akıncı did not use a thermal imaging device at all, but most likely a synthetic aperture radar.
5. Even if the crew survived, it would be very difficult to survive in such a humid and rainy valley, because the human body would quickly lose temperature, and the daylily would be cold by the time rescuers found it. And the possibility of survival is also very small, because the Iranian authorities did not receive any information from maritime satellites or other channels after the crash.
This crash basically combined all the fatal conditions: rolling after landing, fire, disintegration, bad weather and high humidity, and difficulty for rescue workers to enter. . . .
6. What is quite ridiculous is that there were three helicopters in total. Raihi and Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan were on one plane, while the planes of other low-level officials did not have any accidents. Is this a case of sacrificing the leader to save the car?
This indirectly shows that Iran has huge security loopholes, and the killing of nuclear experts is an example.
7. Iran and the United States are currently negotiating on regional issues. It is hard not to wonder if this issue is related to the current situation. For some countries, it does not matter what they are talking about. As long as the United States and Iran are in contact, it is a huge threat.
8. According to a retired U.S. Air Force colonel named Cedric Layton, the helicopter Iranian President Lehi was riding in might be the Bell 212 helicopter that was introduced in the 1960s.
This aircraft was probably purchased by the pro-Western Pahlavi regime in Iran in 1976, before the Islamic Revolution. It is now almost 50 years old. . . .
Moreover, the United States blocked all sources of spare parts after the Iranian Revolution. Iran can only rely on third countries or smuggled spare parts for repairs, so the repair rate may not be high.
What's strange is that Iran can't buy Russian helicopters, or are Russian aircraft too crude and not suitable for business and government use?
It is not yet known whether this incident was ultimately caused by a mechanical failure or other reasons. If it was an assassination, there are many possibilities.
First, there are opposition forces in Iran:
These forces are actually a general term, which includes people who do not support Khamenei’s theocratic system, that is, dissidents and groups.
The more famous one is the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), which supported Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and once had armed forces. This organization is also considered one of the suspects in the Kerman terrorist attack.
It also includes pro-American groups. Before the Islamic Revolution, Iran was under the secular Pahlavi regime, whose relationship with the United States was no less than the current relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, so there are still a considerable number of pro-American people in Iran.
There is also a special group of armed or terrorist organizations, such as the famous Balochistan, which borders Pakistan and is a paradise for terrorists and various Balochistan armed organizations. These people are not only anti-Iranian, but also anti-Pakistan. The previous terrorist attack in Kerman may be related to these people.
In addition, there are Kurds in Iran. This nation is a Kurdish armed force supported by the United States and is one of the means to balance Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. However, the Kurds in Iran are better than those in other countries, and the rebellious sentiment is not so strong, because Iran's policy towards them is not as tough as Turkey's towards the Kurds.
In addition to these complex forces within the country, the external forces are also very complex.
Now someone on X told a joke, saying that this was Israel’s real revenge for Iran’s attack on its homeland. . . .
It is unclear whether it is revenge or not, but the conflict between Israel and Iran is obvious. And the infiltration of Mossad in the Middle East is also obvious, so Israel does have the motive and interest to do this, and it would be better to put the blame on the United States.
It just so happens that Iran is now conducting "secret" consultations with the United States. Although the content of the consultations is related to reducing conflicts and is beneficial to Israel, who knows whether the two sides will talk about other things, such as the nuclear issue. Israel does not think this is a good thing, and even Iran's consultations with the United States are not a good thing, so destroying the relationship between Iran and the United States has always been one of Israel's goals.
As for whether the United States is involved in this matter, it is unclear. Theoretically, it is a bit unethical for the two sides to negotiate on this matter, but it is also a fact that the United States does not have much character.
