Last week, the US CPI data met expectations as expected, risk assets rose, the three major US stock indexes hit new historical highs, and the crypto market also rose, but the market needs a new narrative, which may be the PCE inflation data at the end of the month. If it meets expectations, it will continue to consolidate that inflation is indeed going down.

There are no important data to be released this week, only the remarks of various Fed officials. Among them, Powell had a speech on Monday. After the CPI met expectations, they did not rush to express dovish tendencies. Most of them expressed that it may take longer for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target level. The Fed is very cautious and believes that it may take two more CPI declines to change their cautious ideas. This is actually similar to the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. The market assumes that the subsequent CPI data will all fall. The probability of a rate cut in September is currently about 50%.

What may be more important is that the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when there may be more monetary policy roadmaps. In the big cycle, the Fed's interest rate cut is the general trend. Short-term interest rate cuts do not mean that there will be no cuts. Be more patient #5月市场关键事件