Pay attention to the weekend market, we need to determine a few things?
1. What is the main narrative next week, including the macroeconomic narrative and the crypto narrative?
2. Bitcoin continues to stabilize. Will the cottage market start up over the weekend?
3. How is the capital flow?
1:
After the speech of the Fed officials in the early morning of Friday, although it was relatively hawkish, the risk market did not change much, indicating that the hawkish speech was not recognized. Of course, although the market was not negatively affected by the speech, it is also important to see how the market will continue to rise next week, and which of the macroeconomic narrative and the crypto narrative will continue to drive the bullish sentiment.
1. Next week, on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th, there will basically be speeches by Fed officials, which belongs to the speech secret week. Of course, the theme of the speech is not the monetary interest rate, but will it be "shocking" at the current position? After all, because of the struggle within the Fed, it is not a monolithic entity. It is inevitable that there will be hawks and doves, and the weight of the speech is not as good as that of Lao Bao.
2. At 2 a.m. on Thursday, Beijing time next week, the Fed will release the monetary minutes, followed by a speech, which is the key point. Of course, it is a foregone conclusion that the interest rate will be maintained this month. The key point is whether the subsequent speech will continue to consolidate the market's optimism about the expectation of a rate cut, or will relatively hit the market's optimistic expectation of the Fed's rate cut.
3. At 22:30 next Wednesday, the EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 17 and the annualized data of existing home sales in the United States will be released. In particular, the former, as energy data, although it cannot directly affect the CPI and PCE indexes, can also be used as a reference for short-term US inflation data. Of course, as long as the data changes are not too exaggerated, it will basically not have much impact. Those who like data statistics can use this to analyze inflation data.
4. Starting from 20:30 next Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 18, and the subsequent release of the global S&P PMI manufacturing and service index in May, as well as the new home sales data in April. Among them, the unemployment data focuses on the current short-term employment situation in the United States. As for the manufacturing and service indexes, the impact will not be too great, and most ordinary investors can ignore it. It is also a problem that only friends who like to study macroeconomics can pay attention to.
5. Next Friday, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May and the expected one-year inflation rate in May will be released. The former data is the focus of next week. The data provided by the University of Michigan is not only the data that the Federal Reserve has always focused on, but also one of the data that the market pays close attention to, because this data often reflects the US economic situation more realistically. The higher or lower value of this value will affect the Federal Reserve's reference for adjusting monetary interest rate policies, and will directly affect the market's impact on macroeconomic sentiment.
6. On May 23, next Thursday, the US SEC will make a decision on the spot ETF of #ETH. It is currently expected that the decision will not be too optimistic. The previous Bitcoin ETF can be passed smoothly. In fact, many potential factors are that Bitcoin's leading position and its own size need to be paid attention to. At the same time, it can also be used as a bargaining chip for multi-party games. Therefore, passing the Bitcoin ETF and gradually accumulating chips will have more advantages than disadvantages. However, Ethereum, compared with Bitcoin, has insufficient size and control over the market, and cannot be used as an important bargaining chip for multi-party games. If it is passed at present, the potential management risk may be greater than Bitcoin itself, so the disadvantages of passing at present are greater than the advantages. Therefore, the review of Ethereum's ETF is not optimistic.
If it fails, Ethereum will fall, but it will not fall sharply. After all, it has not been hyped up before, and Ethereum has been weak since Cancun. The valuation is not high, the bubble is not big, and the room for decline is limited. If it passes, there will be a wave of positive sentiment, but there will be a wave of selling pressure after the positive payment. It depends on how to digest it.
2.
As of Saturday, the total market value of ALT is 1.224 trillion, which is the total market value of all tokens except Bitcoin.
Ethereum's current market value is 373.2 billion, stablecoins' total market value is 161.4 billion, and altcoins' market value is 689.4 billion.
#BTC# accounts for 51.7%, up 0.1%, Ethereum 14.7%, up 0.1%, stablecoins 6.33%, down 0.06%, altcoins 27.27%, down 0.14%.
ALT's total trading volume is 42.3 billion, Ethereum 10.3 billion, altcoins 32 billion, and altcoins' trading volume is 7.2 billion lower than yesterday's trading volume.
Overall, although Bitcoin has temporarily stabilized, the altcoin week we originally expected at the weekend has not arrived, and risk sentiment has once again become tense. To put it bluntly, altcoin traders are still not optimistic about the current or next week's market conditions and the stabilization of Bitcoin's current price.At the same time, trading volume has declined, and liquidity has also deteriorated over the weekend, which is not active.
3.
USDT, Eurasian capital flow, is flowing in about 100 million US dollars, but the intraday capital fluctuations are large, the sentiment is not stable enough, the trading volume has declined, and the liquidity has weakened.
USDC, the US capital flow, is flowing in about 80 million US dollars, the fluctuation is smaller than that of Eurasian capital, and the sentiment is relatively stable, but the trading volume is still declining seriously, and the liquidity is low.
The on-site stablecoin retention increased by 100 million. Combined with the capital inflow today, 80 million funds flowed into the market, but the market value of the stable non-retention market has been increasing recently, which also indicates that the sentiment of funds is not optimistic enough, and most of them remain on the sidelines.
Summary:
The stabilization of#BTCover the weekend did not bring more confidence to the market. The cottage market still maintains a tense wait-and-see mood, and funds continue to flow back. Although it is tense in the short term, it shows confidence in the future market. The market is still guided by emotions. Next week, we will still focus on key data and speeches.
