5.18 Market Analysis
There will be no big movement on Saturday and Sunday, because no Fed officials will speak, and no economic data will be released.
If there is no black swan, BTC will remain strong and is expected to return to $70,000.
In addition to CPI, more and more data show that the effect of the Fed's interest rate hike is showing. For example, retail sales stagnated in April and the growth rate was revised down for two months, indicating that Americans can no longer consume. In the first quarter, US household debt reached a record level, indicating that many Americans are in debt and have difficulty repaying. However, the probability of a rate cut in September is not too high, because Powell said on Tuesday that at least one quarter of data will be needed to determine whether there will be a rate cut. Therefore, each subsequent economic data release will bring new variables.
I hope it will not reverse the expectation of a rate cut!
On-chain data is still bullish
(1) The inflow of stablecoins into exchanges continues to increase, and there was still a significant inflow after 8:00 last night
(2) The inflow of BTC into exchanges is not much, only more than 2,000, and the general trend in recent days is outflow
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch spot Bitcoin trading, marking the further advancement of major Wall Street institutions in cryptocurrencies, which is good for BTC.
