The violent bull market is about to start!
After reading the article, the last reminder is 519. Old investors know it, but new investors may not know it.
As the shadow of interest rate hikes gradually dissipates, the possibility of interest rate cuts rises to 75%, and the future trend of Bitcoin attracts attention.
Entering May, the performance of the cryptocurrency market began to improve. First, GameStop drove the market of MEME coins, and then the CPI data in April was in line with expectations. The possibility of interest rate cuts rose again, and the big bull market in the currency circle is really coming.
Analyze from the three major positive factors at the macro level:
CPI data: This is the most fundamental basis for the Fed to decide whether to cut interest rates. The CPI in April rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.4%; it rose by 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.3% month-on-month, which is the smallest month-on-month increase in the core CPI since the beginning of this year.
Housing costs: In recent years, housing costs have been one of the important factors affecting US consumer inflation. Housing costs rose 0.2% month-on-month in April, the slowest pace of increase in two years.
Inflation: Slowing inflation means that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in September is about 75%.
In the next market, Bitcoin will fluctuate in the range of 63,000 to 67,000 US dollars in the short term. After stabilization, it may break through 70,000 US dollars with the help of Bitcoin spot ETF or other good news. If it falls back to the range of 61,000 to 63,000, there is no need to panic. This is a good opportunity to buy low.
Finally, a reminder of the risks. There are still two days before the 519 incident. Although there will be no similar plunge this year, in order to avoid risks, it is recommended to operate cautiously on the day of 519, even if this may have some metaphysical meanings.
