Now the US CPI is still important, but it is not that important anymore. In the past two years, the strategy of predicting asset prices based on the CPI to predict the Fed's monetary policy has been somewhat outdated.

Because, if the CPI continues to be high, can the United States continue to raise interest rates? If it can, it will be raised earlier. If it is forced to raise interest rates again, it will really cause serious economic problems. At present, the interest rate has been raised to the limit, and inflation is still going up, which means that even in this high-interest environment, the US dollar is still bleeding and value is still flowing out of the US dollar.

What about interest rate cuts? Interest rate cuts mean that the market will be provided with liquidity on a large scale, and global demand will recover, which will greatly benefit the world's strongest industrial country/supplier country. This is no different from surrendering to the United States.

In fact, both sides are cliffs, and choosing either one is a loss. The only optimistic situation for the United States today is to maintain high interest rates while reducing inflation, which means that while recovering itself, it continues to squeeze the financial environment of the Eastern power.

After Yellen went back this year, the frequency of military frictions around us increased, which means that the US monetary policy has run out of tricks.

Geopolitical risks and the probability of black swans are rising sharply, which is the reason why the offshore RMB has underperformed the US dollar recently.