Thanks to the flight delay, I was able to see the release of US data before boarding the plane.

Although the first half of this set of data was the same as my expectations last weekend, I didn't expect that the core CPI data was also significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. At the same time, with the April retail sales monthly rate significantly lower than expectations and the previous value, the US inflation management expectations are very optimistic through the data.

Of course, the release of CPI can only show part of the effective work of inflation management. If the CPI is overly optimistic, we have to see whether the release of the PCE index on May 31 will again prompt inflationary pressure and try to cool down the optimistic market expectations.

Compared with the CPI index, the PCE index data collection range is wider. If the CPI is a fixed basket of goods and services to give inflation data, then PCE is more extensive for Americans' medical, service and other consumer expenditures, and can more truly reflect the current inflation status of the United States. After all, one is a fixed range statistics, and the other is a larger range statistics. For the United States, service consumption has always been a high sector.

Under the current market data, the risk market has brought a wave of emotional rebound, but the price of 10-year US Treasury bonds has soared, while the US dollar index has not fallen too much. This hand of expectations is really high! #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布