The United States is so developed, why are there so many dead bodies lying everywhere? This is the real picture of the United States taken by passers-by at risk. According to the annual report released by the United States,

As of January 2023, there are 653,000 homeless people in the United States, and the number of people wandering the streets has reached an all-time high.

As the world's number one developed country, the United States has a per capita GDP of $80,000, almost twice that of its European counterparts. How come there are so many homeless people in the most prosperous international metropolises such as New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco?

What went wrong? Was it that the economic data was overstated, or were the images of homeless people on the street all AI-generated? Was the image posted by the US real?

But people can't feel the cruelty behind the development through the screen. The so-called cola of cents, hamburgers of a few dollars, and iPhone 15 of 799 dollars may seem cheap, but it is not these that determine your quality of life, but housing, medical care and education.

Let's talk about housing first. You envy the permanent property rights in the United States, but in reality, the property rights are permanent, and the property tax is also permanent. For a very ordinary house, the property tax and property fees alone can exceed tens of thousands of dollars each year, even if you don't live in it.

These two fees cannot be reduced by a cent. If you want to default on the payment, you have to see if the American police will agree. Do you still remember the tragic end of the Chinese female doctor who was shot dead on the spot by the police who expelled her? Some people say that if you can't afford to buy a house, you can rent one, but do you know how expensive the rent in the United States is? In the past 20 years, the rent in the United States has

The single-digit increase from $480 to $1,200 is much greater than the increase in wages. In big cities, it even doubles. Although the minimum hourly wage in New York is $15, the median rent for an apartment is $2,500 per month. What is left after paying the rent? Besides, a minor cold will cost you $5,000, which is not an outrageous bill.

What's even more terrifying is that almost all Americans agree that they would never call an ambulance. This may be the reason why Americans take painkillers and anti-inflammatory drugs as snacks. In addition, in order to complete their studies, nearly 45 million young Americans owe more than 1.7 trillion US dollars in student loans. Before they enter society,

They have become the meat on the chopping board of capital. If they cannot find a good job after graduation, they will not be able to pay back the money, their credit will be bankrupt, they will not be able to rent a house or get a loan, and they will have to live on the streets. On one hand, there is a paradise for the world's rich, with luxury houses everywhere, and on the other hand, there are homeless people everywhere in the center of Phuket. This kind of shock is the current folding of the United States. Kardashian can spend hundreds of millions to build a ski resort to celebrate Christmas, while the homeless people huddled in tents in the center of New York are worried about relief food.


Since housing inflation accounts for one-third of the CPI index and one-sixth of the PCE price index, it has a great impact on overall inflation. In housing inflation, house prices are affected by investment factors, while rents can better reflect the real situation of the market, so the latter is more critical than the former.


This Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April CPI. Currently, economists generally predict that the April CPI will slow down slightly from 3.5% last month to 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI will also slow down from 3.8% to 3.6%.

How much does rental inflation need to fall?

Since slowing rents is key to bringing core inflation down to the Fed's target, how much lower would rent inflation need to be?

In terms of sub-items, the article divides core inflation into three sub-items: commodity inflation, housing inflation, and non-housing service inflation.

The article points out that before the epidemic, the commodity inflation rate was about -1%, the housing inflation rate was about 2.5%-3.5%, and the non-housing service inflation rate was slightly above 2% - the overall core inflation rate was slightly below 2%.

therefore,

For inflation to return to 2%, non-housing services inflation would have to fall from 3.5% now to below 3%, and housing inflation would have to fall from 5.8% to around 3.5%.

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