Will the Fed cut interest rates?
If there is an economic recession or an economic crisis, the Fed will choose to release money in order to get rid of the market as soon as possible.
But if the economy is fine and has achieved a soft road or no road, then the Fed will have no meaning to release money. If it does not release money, the liquidity of the market will only increase and recover slowly, and this cycle will at least enter after 2026.
The interest rate cut itself will not increase liquidity in large quantities. What really helps to improve liquidity is the release of money. The biggest advantage of the interest rate cut is that it has completed the last tightening stage of the Fed. The next step is the expected release of money, so the interest rate cut does not mean the release of liquidity.
Some friends say that if there is no interest rate cut, the "bear market" will come!
I personally think that if there is no interest rate cut, the bear market will not be too big, but if there is no interest rate cut, the risk of the risk market will increase, and the possibility of economic recession will increase. The final result is likely not to be a good thing, but this is all probabilistic. It can be said that the possibility of a black swan occurring for every day of high interest rates is higher. But it is not realistic to say that there will be a 50% drop without anything happening.
Will the US election determine the future direction of Bitcoin?
Biden and Trump have different attitudes towards Bitcoin. Biden has stated that he will veto Congress's reversal of its regulatory guidelines.
On the other hand, Trump strongly supports Bitcoin and said that he will accept Bitcoin donations during the election. Standard Chartered Bank expects that after he returns to power, the price of Bitcoin will break through a higher price.
Which of these two old men will be elected as the new US president? It feels that their campaign directly affects the development of the currency circle. Interest rate hikes, interest rate cuts, wars, and elections seem to be far away. Things directly affect the trend of the currency circle.
It can be seen that after a period of volatility, Bitcoin is ushering in a new turning point. Whether it is the difficulties during the downturn or the topic of arm wrestling in the US election, Bitcoin is increasingly valued internationally.
This emerging industry is gradually gaining international attention. Its future development depends on regulatory policies and the enthusiasm of mainstream investors. Let us wait and see and witness Bitcoin continue to create miracles in the transformation!
This week, focus on the US CPI inflation data in April, which will greatly affect the Fed's subsequent monetary policy path and the market's expectations of this path;In addition, you can pay attention to the relevant speeches of several Fed officials.
This week's key events Indicators:
May 14
●US April PPI annual rate
● Fed Chairman Powell and ECB Governing Council member Knott attended a meeting and delivered a speech
May 15
● US April CPI
May 16
● US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 11 (10,000)
● Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech on the economy
May 17 Day
●2024 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on economic outlook
●2024 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook
Recently, I have seen many people discussing 5.19. They put their hopes on 5.19 before 3.12. Both 3.12 and 5.19 are accidental events, not inevitable events. They do not happen every year or every bull market. Those who waited for the 3.12 crash this year have missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin. In two or three weeks, when Bitcoin adjustment is over and returns to 70,000, even the 60,000 or so pie will not be seen. The further it goes, the higher the price of Bitcoin will be. This is the price to pay for waiting
Are you in a bad mood for the market correction?
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, and the secondary market cottages are still strong in those few coins. I say that after April 13, many strong cottages have formed their bottoms, and are in a volatile upward trend, slowly climbing. Careful people can find these coins, and they will also be strong coins in the future.
If you want to know more about the currency circle and first-hand cutting-edge information, follow me. Junyangli publishes market analysis and recommends high-quality potential currencies every day.
