UPDATE - lots of questions regarding our "Wyckoff Distribution" Thread
Boring PA right now - where are we headed? Let's take a look, answer 5 important questions and see our 2024 price prediction:
1) Where is the bottom?
It's all a matter of semantics - the distribution refers to a potential local bottom. We have previously identified two possible supports: 56k and 52k. The first one has been hit (Spring). The second one is still not off the table as long as the "point of control" (67k - see attached post) at 67k remains resistance and is not broken.
2) Wyckoff Distribution?
back to the semantics question: If we do not see a worsening of the newsflow (e.g. escalation of the war or some other macroeconomic stuff), the current pattern can be interpreted as a wyckoff distribution ending at e.g. 56 or 52k - or a Wyckoff reaccumulation (see chart)
3) What about timing - when will we go up again?
"Sell in May and go away, but remember to come back in September!" This old stock market mantra may show us the way. Although halving lies in the past, we could continue the "boring" market phase for another 2 or 3 months - with renewed buying interest after the summer break (August / September)
4) What is your price prediction?
Hard to say - however, we still believe in 100k this year. Most likely this will be the case towards the end of the year (Q4 2024). For Q2 and Q3 we see price chopping between 52 - 75k (fakeouts included).
5) Why is BTC not skyrocketing after halving
It is a misconception that BTC instantly rallies after halving. This usually takes up to half a year until the post-halving rally finally kicks in. This being said: we are not at the end of the cycle.
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