Ethereum will miss this bull run: New users are not choosing Ethereum
Ethereum is in adolescence, going through an awkward phase of mood swings like a teenager trying to make the leap to adulthood but the world doesn’t understand him.
The biggest factor is L2. Ethereum in this cycle is different from the past because it basically tells new users: "Hey, don't use Ethereum, we're too expensive, but the good news is we have 100 brand new L2s and you're going to love them." So countless L2s build cross-chain bridges, then disperse liquidity, and finally fail and repeat the cycle.
But in the long run, developing Ethereum L2 is the right thing to do, the best long-term way to achieve decentralization, Vitalik's vision, etc. These things don't need to be repeated to someone who has believed this since 2021. But the problem is, they are not new buyers of ETH.
So who should the new buyers be? Those who speculate on meme coins, App users, and people from traditional finance.
But the first two are busy buying tokens on the chains they are using, and L2 beat shows that there are 96 chains to choose from. Finally, people from traditional finance are buying Bitcoin, and they don’t care how much real cash flow there is on the chain.
Although the problem of liquidity fragmentation is being solved, fundamentals are also important. But now is Ethereum's adolescence. When some chains are taking shortcuts, Ethereum must bite the bullet, take the difficult road, and go through the necessary awkward stages in order to become a mature and well-functioning chain.
It’s a long-term thing, but it won’t pay off in this cycle.
ETH bull market is coming: Fundamentals are good, Ethereum has a dominant position
Another group of people will refute the first view and believe that after the BTC bull market comes, ETH will soon reach $10,000.
Ethereum is much stronger now than it was in 2020. It is not only a profitable blockchain, but also has solid token economics, the world's largest exchanges are working on Ethereum L2, ZkEVMs have also been realized, unlimited L2 budgets are accelerating the development of Ethereum technology, Ethereum ETF is about to be launched, BlackRock's tokenized treasury bonds, etc. Ethereum's fundamentals are positive.
Some chains may have 1 million users, but Ethereum can be the underlying infrastructure of 1,000 chains, and the transaction fees of 1 million users on each chain will return to Ethereum. L2 decentralized liquidity will also be integrated, because L2 chains are accumulating huge centralized debts, which they will pay back to Ethereum in the future and pay Ethereum through Gas.
For investors who see the new narrative of BTC, it’s only a matter of time before they wake up and start paying attention to cash flow.
In short, it is foolish to think that Ethereum will miss this bull run, and the possibility is so small that it is almost not worth considering. The market will actively vote, so the ETH bull run is coming.
The above are two different views on Ethereum’s long-termism. Will this cycle be missed or will the ETH bull market be coming? Which side are you on?
