Overnight, Bitcoin suddenly broke through 31,000, and crossed the high point of 31,000 at 31,500, reaching a high of 31,855. Then it fell back, and is still temporarily stable above 31,000. If it continues to be strong, the two sides may meet at the end of the month. That will also be the time for the long and short dragons to fight in the wild. Since 2023, Bitcoin has struggled to get out of the quagmire, and has overcome difficulties and climbed bravely along the way, trying to return to the mid-range. 31,000 has jumped nearly 92% from 16,500.
Many friends often don’t know how to set a goal for hoarding bitcoins when making a long-term investment plan. Some friends have low incomes, and 1 BTC is worth 30,000 US dollars, or more than 200,000 RMB, which seems quite out of reach. Some friends have a little wealth, and have a few A8s in their spare money, but they still feel that they are not full even if they use it to buy a few bitcoins.
In fact, you might as well refer to your current net worth level relative to the world's 7 billion people to estimate how much BTC you should hold, so that you can ensure that your wealth status does not decrease.
This is thanks to Bitcoin, a more equitable measure of wealth. The limited total amount is designed so that no one can arbitrarily issue more than the original amount, thus ensuring that your wealth stored in the form of Bitcoin will not shrink passively, causing your wealth status to slowly decline.
According to statistics, in the global distribution of personal net wealth in 2021, there are only 62.5 million elite people at the top of the pyramid with a net worth of more than 1 million US dollars, accounting for about 0.89% of the world's total population of 7 billion.
According to the drawer principle, if the 21 million BTC are evenly distributed to these 62.5 million people, each person can only get 0.336 BTC. In fact, considering three factors: 1. There is still a surplus of Bitcoin that has not been issued; 2. A considerable number of Bitcoins have been lost; 3. The distribution of holdings is by no means uniform, and it is not only for these people; it can be seen that the last person in the elite class should hold much less than this number.
Even if we do not consider the above three supplementary factors, and use the most reliable and generous estimate of 0.336 coins, based on the current bitcoin price of 31,000, the total cost of obtaining it is just over 10,000 US dollars, or more than 70,000 RMB.
In other words, today, you only need to spend less than 100,000 yuan to reach a wealth status above the elite class with a net worth of one million US dollars today, based on the scale of global wealth measured by Bitcoin.
Of course, if you think that in your future target period, such as 20 or 30 years later, Bitcoin cannot measure global wealth, but only a small part of it, then you can introduce another percentage to make an inference.
Today, the total market value of Bitcoin is slightly less than $600 billion. The total global wealth is about $272 trillion. The market value of Bitcoin is only 2.2 thousandths of the total global wealth.
If Bitcoin can grow to 10% of the world's total wealth in 20-30 years, then the 0.336 Bitcoins required for the above calculation need to be multiplied by ten, that is, 3.36 BTC. Converted into today's cost is 100,000 US dollars, or 700,000 RMB.
In other words, people whose wealth level today is equivalent to that of a well-off society may be able to achieve a class leap to the elite class in the next 20-30 years by actively hoarding Bitcoin.
Maybe $100,000 is still too high an investment? No problem, we can take it one level lower.
The next wealth level after the million-dollar net worth is the well-off class with a net worth of between $100,000 and $1 million. There are 627 million people in this class, accounting for about 8.9% of the world's total population.
Adding these two groups together, there are a total of 689.5 million people, sharing 21 million, and each person will never have more than 0.03 coins. 0.03 coins, the cost today is only 915 US dollars, about 6500 RMB, less than 10,000 yuan.
Similarly, according to the above algorithm, if we reverse the trend by 10% in the next 20-30 years, we should hoard 0.3 BTC, and the cost will be less than 10,000 US dollars, or 70,000 to 80,000 yuan.
If you still feel it is difficult, we will go down one level to the subsistence class of $10,000 to $100,000. There are about 1.791 billion people in this class worldwide, accounting for about 25.6%.
The total number of the top three classes is 2.48 billion, dividing up 21 million, and the average per capita BTC is no more than 0.0085 BTC, which is equivalent to US$260 in today's cost, less than RMB 2,000.
Similarly, by doing a 10% reverse calculation for the next 20-30 years, we get a holding target of 0.085 BTC, with a cost of US$2,600, or RMB 20,000.
With a monthly salary of 3,000 yuan, saving 1,000 yuan a month, 12,000 yuan a year, you can save 20,000 yuan in less than two years. We are probably no more than two years away from the next bull market, which is the last time window for hoarding cakes.
For friends who already have a higher level of wealth, you can calculate upward.
According to Credit Suisse's estimates, the number of ultra-high net worth individuals with personal wealth of more than 50 million US dollars in 2021 is about 218,200. Excluding 21 million BTC, the average person does not exceed 96 BTC. The current cost is less than 3 million US dollars, more than 20 million RMB.
If we multiply the cost by ten, it would be 960 BTC, which is equivalent to less than 30 million US dollars, or about 200 million RMB, at the current price.
Interestingly, for a person with only 50 million USD, it is definitely not easy for him to pay 30 million USD to buy 1,000 BTC. This is much more difficult than the above calculation of a person with 1 million USD paying 100,000 USD, or a person with 100,000 USD paying 10,000 USD.
Because 30 million is 60% of 50 million, while 100,000 is only 10% of 1 million, and 10,000 is also only 10% of 100,000.
This means that it is much more difficult for a person who is currently at the top of the pyramid to maintain his wealth by hoarding Bitcoin than for an ordinary, relatively poor person. In other words, it can be deduced from the current wealth distribution figures that just by hoarding Bitcoin, the relatively poor people at the bottom can move up, while the relatively rich people at the top can move down, thus achieving a more equal distribution of global wealth.
Moreover, the faster and better Bitcoin develops, the higher its share of the world's total wealth will be, and the faster and better the effect of equalizing the rich and the poor will be. In the above, we only calculated that Bitcoin will account for 10% in the next 20-30 years. What if this proportion increases to 20% or 50%?
The lower the current wealth level, the lower the cost of participating in this historic event of global wealth redistribution across generations, and the greater the benefits. The earlier you participate, the lower the cost and the greater the benefits. The longer you hoard, the lower the cost and the greater the benefits.
Moreover, because the wealth distribution movement brought about by Bitcoin benefits the most people, it will inevitably mobilize and unite the largest number of people in the world to establish the largest and deepest consensus, which in turn further promotes and ensures the continued increase in the proportion of Bitcoin relative to the total global wealth.
The more people participate, the more successful Bitcoin becomes. The more successful Bitcoin becomes, the more people benefit. The more people benefit, the more people participate. This is a positive feedback loop.