Macroeconomics and news:
There is really not much to say about this sector recently. The whole topic of the market is whether the interest rate cut is optimistic or pessimistic.
I still stick to my personal key. Through the US data, we cannot figure out the expectation of the US interest rate cut. If we can grasp the macro direction by relying on data alone, I believe that central banks of various countries will not study various US data every day, and even will not "cheat" the US data. Central banks can't do it, and it's even harder for us. Most of them are analysis and speculation.
At the same time, they themselves have not decided when the United States will cut interest rates, because the economy that will face the test of interest rate cuts is very important. How the world sees the US economy is very important. Whether it is a hard landing, a normal landing, or an optimistic soft landing, it will affect people's expectations of the future of the United States. Therefore, before adjusting the posture and landing, the expectation of interest rate cuts is just a means for the Federal Reserve to regulate the market.
If the US dollar index falls, then be a little hawkish to cool down the optimistic expectations. If the US debt falls, then be a little dovish to let the US debt rise, and bring the stock market risk market along. The overall purpose is to regulate the balance and consolidate the world's confidence in the expectations of the United States. Otherwise, the US economy collapses, the financial system collapses, and the credit system collapses, then it will really collapse.
At the same time, before the US election, internal fighting was still quite serious, so daring to cut interest rates at this time is simply playing with self-destruction, unless the US economy is really so good and the economic ecology is really so benign, but if the economic ecology is really so benign, how can it remind of the risk of raising interest rates when raising interest rates, and frequently remind of the risk of lowering interest rates when preparing to lower interest rates? In summary, there is still not enough confidence.
The Fed's subsequent data and speeches will be completed around the US "purpose". Only by successfully completing the election and reducing internal conflicts can we dare to talk about interest rate cuts and economic expectations.
Of course, we still have to care about short-term fluctuations in the impact of US data on risk markets.
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