I have been very busy these past two days, as you can tell from the time I update my daily report. I am really busy every day, but daily review or summary is obviously beneficial to my improvement, so even if I am tired, I should stick to it.
The Bitcoin Ecosystem Conference was held in Hong Kong these days. Many investment institutions and project parties were present. I also attended some of them. Here are some of my thoughts:
1. The crypto industry has become more and more formalized and mature, and practitioners have become more professional. I entered the industry in 2017. When I first entered the industry, I felt that there were many very low-level people in this circle, such as CX conferences, capital pools, etc. But recently, through frequent contacts with institutions and project parties, I found that all kinds of highly educated and highly professional people have been madly pouring into this industry. The revelation to us is: as this industry becomes more and more formal, the opportunities for high returns brought by disorder (high risk) will only become fewer and fewer, corresponding to ordinary investors will become more and more difficult to play, and the beta returns of the entire industry will continue to narrow.
2. Offline investment and financing is still very popular, and almost all venues are crowded. This shows at least two points: First, the traffic in the circle is constantly overflowing, which will inevitably bring new funds into this industry; second, everyone is optimistic about this year's bull market, so readers don't have to worry too much, the big bull will definitely come. In addition, judging from the financing data in the first quarter of 2024, the amount of financing next month has reached the high point of the previous cycle. According to the time period, it is currently in the early and middle stages of the bull market; from the perspective of sectors, infrastructure, applications, technology service providers, financial service providers and other service providers (each track is divided into different sub-sectors including GameFi, DeFi, NFT, payment, wallet, DAO, Layer 1, cross-chain and others) have the most financing, so it is also the sector we should focus on.
3. Updated judgment of the market. From today's BTC chip chart, we can see that 59,000 has strong support, and the resistance in the range of 61,000 to 65,000 is still relatively large, with 890,000 BTC in the entire network as resistance. Therefore, the market is likely to continue to fluctuate in a wide range, which also supports the view of the high-selling and low-buying strategy I gave yesterday.
4. Give some tokens for observation (no investment advice). Recently, many high-quality sectors have fallen a lot, especially the newly listed SOL tokens, which have retreated from highs. For example, the reason for the decline of PYTH is very simple: first, it is dragged down by the market; second, SOL has been performing poorly recently; third, PYTH will soon have a large number of unlocks. However, from the perspective of fundamentals and market making, PYTH is a rare high-quality copycat, so I suggest that you focus on observing this token, and when the negative impact of this wave of unlocking has passed and the market shows signs of stabilization, you can buy it at a low price. I personally think it has great flexibility but not too much risk. #BTC走势分析 #山寨币热点 #pyth #BTC #Megadrop
