【0509 Market Analysis】
The end of bad news is good news? It still depends on the Fed's mood!
I. Fundamentals
1. Interest rate cuts are delayed, and the number of bankruptcies of US companies in April hit a one-year high. According to data from S&P Global, April was the month with the most bankruptcies this year, with 66 companies filing for bankruptcy, an increase of 88% from 35 applications in January. Affected by this, the US stock market rebounded weakly, and Bingbing followed.
2. The presidents of the Boston Fed and the Minneapolis Fed both spoke hawkishly this week, saying that they would stick to the 2% inflation target and that interest rates need to remain at the current level for a longer period of time. This hit the market's expectations of interest rate cuts and was not conducive to a further rebound in the risk market, including Bingbing.
II. Bitcoin spot ETF trading
1. On May 8 (Wednesday), there was a net inflow of US$11.5 million, and the corresponding purchase of 184 coins will be made after 21:30 tonight (Thursday). The net inflow was created only by BITB, and other ETF institutions were all shown as 0 (no capital flow or small amount).
2. US investors are obviously in a wait-and-see mood, and the recent inflow of ETFs may not be ideal. It is difficult for $BTC to have a big rise.
III. Technical Analysis
1. The daily line forms a falling channel, and MACD is below the zero axis. It is currently a bear market, but the bar chart shows that the bearish momentum is constantly weakening; KDJ forms a dead cross in the median, and it takes a certain amount of time to enter the oversold zone before it can rebound.
2. Pay attention to the secondary low point 59600 support. A bullish pattern of 1 hour or more is formed in the range of 59600~60000, which may meet the 2B rule and there is a rebound.
