Yesterday, Dabing and Erbing led the cottage industry to fall back again, but we can clearly see that many cottage industries can no longer fall, and even violent pullbacks have occurred. Therefore, the expected time of shock and bottoming out should be over soon. When everyone can’t hold on and want to hand over the low-level chips, you might as well take a look at the trends of many cottage industries in the first half of 2021. You will know that your current trapped position may only take a few days to get you out of the trap, or even double or tenfold. However, before that, the most important thing is that you must survive and hold on to your position, otherwise when it really rises, you will only lament that your position is not enough!
In the past two days, I have sorted out the tracks and varieties that should be laid out. In fact, there are still a lot of them. There are a lot of projects on BN at present. How to screen them? My personal method is to find those with high trading volume and relatively low market value. This type of project can be cleared and laid out ten times or a hundred times! The second is the track. There are still many BN IEO projects that have emerged in the last round of bull market with a hundred times return, so we can focus on and lay out this area!
Secondly, there is the star ecosystem SOL since this year, as well as the Ethereum ecosystem, fan series, Hong Kong concept, big cake ecosystem, RWA, modularization, re-staking, L2, oracle, DWF, etc. In fact, the focus is on these ecosystems at the forefront. Many old ecosystems that were hyped in the last round of bull market may not necessarily have much performance in this round! The market always hypes new things instead of old ones, whether it is old varieties or old tracks! After all, new things can tell stories better, and the selling pressure is relatively less than that of old projects, so we must embrace new things, such as inscriptions, which will definitely have a chance to explode.
Market analysis:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the 62000 meridian, which is also an important position for the long and short game. If it cannot break through upward, the support will turn into pressure and it will continue to fall.
Judging from the recent liquidity, the wash-out phase is still continuing, and the news tends to be flat. If there is no main institution entering the market at this stage, once a temporary top is formed above, looking at the performance of the time period after the previous halving, there will be a deep correction.
However, the current market is not so pessimistic. Judging from the current contract position data, the current market activity is still good, and I personally believe that even if it falls, it will induce a wave of upward expansion, and then cooperate with the news or directly accelerate the decline. After breaking through the trend line above, pay attention to the position near 67,000. If it does not fall below the previous low of 56,500, it is still in the range of washing and oscillation!
ETH
From the daily level, the current KDJ and MACD indicators are actually still in the stage of oscillating and leveling. The short-selling sentiment this time did not give a strong indication in terms of technical volume, including the opening sentiment of the current BOLL lower track was not too strong. In a word, the decline was very reluctant.
Please note that due to the conflict between the short-term trends of Ethereum and Bitcoin and the exchange rate, the short-term market is relatively extreme and the risk is relatively high. If the rebound is weak and cannot effectively fall below the daily MA30, the short-term currency price will once again rebound after touching the pressure (since Ethereum fell below the MA30 daily moving average on March 20, Ethereum’s multiple short-term rebounds have stopped rebounding when they hit MA30, which also shows the key to the MA30 daily moving average trend line).
As for the trend line, if 2873-2791 can be held, there will be room and opportunity for a second rise in the future. On the contrary, only when 2873-2791 is effectively broken, the market trend will change. Here is my personal view on the trend line. The short-term market is complicated recently, so we will use the analysis of the trend line as a reference for trading.
PIXEL：
It is best if pixel does not reach a new low here, as this will give investors confidence. The current situation is volatile and it is difficult to rise in the short term. It is expected to continue to adjust, but it will not prevent us from buying on dips.
Avax:
The closer Avax gets to the 30-32 range, the better choice it is to cover your position. Let's see if you get another chance to get on board.
SUN:
SOL broke through in four hours and caused a small correction. There is no sign of improvement in the short term. You can take appropriate positions in the 125-135 range!
You can pay attention to bome's current quotation: 0.0106u. There is still a good chance for this in the future. It only took 3 days to be listed on Binance, and the previous consensus was very high. After the listing, the selling pressure fell back and the bottom has been consolidating for some time. You can enter a long position at the current price and place the replenishment position below 0.09u. The expected increase is more than 30%!
Summarize
The market trend is nothing more than a comprehensive response to factors such as capital, macro-financial environment, news, and ecological activities.
Funding:
This wave of BTC-driven market trends is driven by ETFs. After the ETF was approved in January, Wall Street institutions enthusiastically bought hundreds of millions of dollars of BTC every day, resulting in a nearly 100% increase in two months. After April, especially recently, BlackRock ended its continuous net buying and even started net selling. The funding side "suddenly" dried up. After the Bitcoin "halving" event in April, the market funding rate dropped drastically and even turned negative, indicating that market funds have become particularly cautious, which has the most direct impact on market sentiment.
Market:
Regarding the subsequent trend of BTC, I think any fluctuation in the range of $61,000 to $65,000 is necessary in the short term, which will force those who are not firm enough to wash out. After a short adjustment, BTC will continue to consolidate in the range of $66,000 to $70,000, and then start a strong altcoin season.
Sector trends:
Currently, the artificial intelligence sector is performing best:
RNDR - Thanks to their official 'partnership' with Apple, it has also become a leader in the field of artificial intelligence as we witness narrative rotation.
ENA - Funding will undoubtedly return to positive territory as the market is bullish again, which is inherently good for Ethena. The team has also been building hype lately with more reward increases announced and the founder tweeting ‘big week’.
JTO - Source has it that Jito is building the ‘feature layer for Solana’ — essentially reinjecting SOL.
ETHFI - Despite the sell-off of many LRT related tokens following Eigen, TVL appears to be increasing.
Events in May:
FTM - Major upgrade with Fantom Sonic.
NEAR - A multi-chain abstract paper with an impressive tech stack.
TON - Mini Programs are the next big thing in mobile blockchain.
TIA - The market leader in modular DA, there will be more airdrops for stakers in the future.
ARB - Application chains will become the next big hot narrative, and Arbitrum will lead the trend with Orbit.
STX - A promising BTC sidechain with the Satoshi upgrade reportedly coming soon.
The dividends of the market are cyclical. The bull market in 2017 ended at the end of the year. In the bull market in 2021, many cottages actually ended in the middle of the year. With the explosion of the market metaverse, some sectors once again reached a new high and ended the bull market at the end of the year. I personally expect that the arrival of this round of bull market will be faster than the previous round, and it will end faster! Just like many people, Cake is not actually on the car at present, because it has risen too fast, beyond the expectations of many people! Then the arrival of the cottage season may be the same, so fast that people are caught off guard, and it will end quietly! What we need to do is to ambush in advance! Hold the chips and wait for the wind to come!
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
