According to Polymarket, the largest prediction market, the probability of #ETF #EthereumETF being approved by May 31 hovers around 18%. By the time you read this, it will probably have dropped even further, unless something unexpected happens. Thus, it can be argued that the failure of the Ethereum ETF in May is almost a foregone conclusion. Just imagine how prices would skyrocket if they were suddenly approved.

Conclusion

The question of the legal status of Ethereum in the United States remains open. The SEC considers Bitcoin a commodity, more than a dozen other popular coins have already been called securities, but the status of Ethereum has not yet been determined. There is a recording of Gensler speaking in 2018, where he says that he does not classify ETH as a security. Now he avoids answering. While the status of Ethereum remains unclear, it is unlikely that Ethereum ETFs will receive approval.

In the long term, the approval of an Ethereum ETF is inevitable, as the largest investment funds with teams of professional lawyers and analysts have bet on it. Approval is a matter of time. And most likely, closer to this point, this will be noticeable in the behavior of the SEC, as is the case with Bitcoin.