【0508 Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions】
The cost of mining machines is unexpected. Will the correction stop at the shutdown price?
1. The cost of miners after the fourth halving
1. The cost of miners in high-standard mining farms in the United States: the pure electricity cost of mainstream mining machines is about 55,000 to 65,000 US dollars, Bitmain's latest mining machine T21 is about 50,000 US dollars, and the top S21 is about 45,000 US dollars.
2. The estimated cost of all costs taken into account by the well-known Capriole institution: the mainstream mining machine is about 129,000 US dollars, and some websites have estimated it to be 102,000 US dollars.
3. The shutdown price of mainstream miners: about 50,000 to 60,000 US dollars in Europe and the United States, and low-cost mining farms in Africa, Russia, etc. may be about 40,000 to 50,000.
2. Miner inventory
In the past month, miners have switched from large-scale selling to holding. At present, miners hold 1.806 million BTC. Compared with the highest point in October 2023, miners have only reduced their holdings by 27,000, and there is no significant selling pressure at present.
3. On-chain and off-chain data
$BTC 30-day volatility: Since the high of 4.28% on March 26, it has continued to decline to 2.67%, which is almost the same as the bear market, indicating that more holders of the current price are indifferent to the price, those who are trapped are not in a hurry to leave, and those who make profits are not in a hurry to close.
4. Market tone and operation suggestions
1. Short-term traders and information determine the current trend, which does not constitute a trend market. The consolidation market will continue, and the amplitude may gradually narrow.
2. The probability of mining accidents in the bull market is small, and the price range of mainstream mining machines will be the stage bottom, which is also the ideal entry range.
3. BTC: Buy in batches on the left side of the 61000~56000 range.
4. ETH: Whether the spot ETF on May 23 will pass faces great uncertainty, it is recommended to enter the market with a small position or avoid it.
5. Shanzhai: Spot or low-multiple contracts are mainly short-term operations, and stop profits in time.
