Bitcoin: Bulls and bears hate each other, how to reverse the outflow of US funds?
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of posting, the price of Bitcoin is 63,790. Bitcoin has just completed a "perfect" oscillation of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. When the 4-hour Bollinger Band contracted to 1200 points, we did not wait for a breakthrough but instead ushered in a shock. The short-term Bitcoin trading volume surged, but there was no breakthrough. The current stage of Bitcoin price belongs to - long and short hate each other.
Funds have observed that for two consecutive days around 16:00 in the afternoon, the two rises of Bitcoin were accompanied by the outflow of US funds. If this trend continues, does it prove that US traders are cashing out at high levels? Under the premise that the stock market is currently performing well, how can we save the outflow of funds in the crypto market?
Bitcoin disk:
Today's market may be rather boring. The current oscillation position of Bitcoin is the same as the previous two oscillations and declines. The price remains at the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band. The area near the middle line, whether as support or resistance, is basically ineffective in the face of oscillations. And the sideways oscillation at such a critical position makes the market's bullish and bearish sentiments complicated.
The upper resistance is still the weekly EMA7 66,200 and the daily Bollinger Band upper line 67,300.
The support below is the mid-day line of 63,500. At present, whether it is a short-term resistance or support, the basic effect is unsatisfactory.
The support seen below, the integer level of 60,000 will activate some buying volume, during which the golden support of 61,200 can serve as a buffer.
It should be noted that the 4-hour Bollinger Band has basically shrunk from 2100 in the early morning to 1400 now. The tightening of the Bollinger Band amplitude also indicates that there will be a breakthrough in the short-term technology. It should be noted that the current price of Bitcoin is at the 4-hour lower track. If it breaks through upward and successfully breaks through the 4-hour middle line, short-term bullish sentiment will take the upper hand. On the contrary, if it breaks through the lower line of the Bollinger Band downward, it may have to test the support situation.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 4-hour lower support is 63,000. The current price is close to the lower support, so the risk of breaking it is greater.
The RSI relative strength index has currently fallen back to around 55, which is temporarily in a neutral sentiment stage and has little impact.
Let the data speak: The volume continues to shrink, and at the same time, US funds are flowing out again!
The overall market change is still not big. The market value increased yesterday, but it fell today, which is different from the previous value. In the market value decline, Bitcoin's share increased again, Ethereum and altcoin market value decreased, and stablecoin market value increased.
In terms of trading volume, Bitcoin is still in a state of shrinking, accompanied by fluctuations, market trading sentiment and liquidity have deteriorated again. On the other hand, Ethereum and altcoins have seen an increase in trading volume during today's decline, and airdrop sentiment has been released again.
In terms of funds, the retained funds on the exchange decreased by 300 million, and the net outflow off the exchange was 119 million, of which 159 million came from Asia and 278 million from the United States. In other words, 181 million of the retained funds on the exchange disappeared, part of which was due to the outflow of other stablecoins, which have not been counted yet, and part of the funds were involved in transactions.
We still need to pay attention to the funding aspect. Although there is a net inflow of funds from Asia, the volatility is still very large. The highest and lowest fund fluctuations within 24 hours showed a gap of 500 million, and the sentiment on the funding side is not stable.
As for U.S. funds, we reminded you yesterday that around 16:25 yesterday, as Bitcoin was rising, there was a significant outflow of U.S. funds. At the same time today, from 16:05 to 16:25, the U.S. USDC increased by about 90 million in the short term, and then began to flow out significantly when Bitcoin rose to around 64,422, with more than 20,000 funds flowing out in 2 hours.
It should be noted that this is the second consecutive similar situation. With the rise of Bitcoin in the afternoon European session, there has been an obvious outflow of US funds. Should we be vigilant about this?
The outflow of funds has indirectly proved once again that the sentiment of US crypto traders is low. Although there is a reflux in the ETF market, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate and fall driven by the rise of US stocks. What direction will the outflow of funds bring? We need to make a conclusion based on the market situation.
Macroeconomics and news:
Since 2004, everyone's attitude towards the Federal Reserve and Powell has been basically in a state of confusion. In fact, this is normal. The actions of the Federal Reserve and when to cut interest rates are all being watched by central banks of various countries for regulation. Even the central banks of Japan (which may have known in advance) and Switzerland have made "wrong" regulatory actions, not to mention institutions and private retail investors. However, Powell is sometimes hawkish and sometimes dovish. It is not difficult to understand. Let's look at the situation of the US dollar and US bonds.
Some time ago, Powell's hawkish stance basically pushed the US dollar directly from 102 to a high of 105.5, consolidating the strength of the US dollar.
During this period, the market started to move a little bit dovishly, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and U.S. bonds started to rise.
The US dollar and US debt are the United States' powerful weapons against the global economy and financial markets, and are also the two sharpest sickles of the United States.
Moreover, with the recent dovish attitude, it has also boosted the U.S. stock market, preventing it from collapsing and falling due to insufficient market confidence before the interest rate cut.
If we look at actions through the lens of purpose, it all seems easy to understand.
The market is now beginning to be optimistic about interest rate cut expectations, but don’t get too excited, otherwise the “draft” of the Federal Reserve officials’ speeches this week may turn out to be a cooling draft.
Everyone is concerned about when the interest rate will be cut, but it seems that many people have overlooked a fatal problem. Once the interest rate is cut or the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut the interest rate, will the economic and financial risks of the United States itself explode? Will the landing of the US economy be successful? If it is unsuccessful, or if it is successful, what positive/negative impact will it have on the global economy? This is also a material I am going to write recently, so I will share it for discussion.
Market summary:
The current price of Bitcoin has reached a point where the bulls and bears are fed up with each other. Both bulls and bears are in an awkward position. The previous breakthrough was originally thought to be a 4-hour technical breakthrough, but it ended up being a perfect 4-hour range oscillation without a breakthrough. It seems that it will come in the early morning or tomorrow morning.
The current stage is very dangerous for contract traders. It is recommended that no matter whether your view is long or short, it is best to place an expected order. Of course, it is best to control your hands and move less. You will not suffer any loss if you wait and see. As long as the investment life is there, there will be no shortage of opportunities in the market. On the contrary, if you are not careful, your principal will be gone, and you can only watch no matter how good the market is.
As for spot traders, there is no need to panic for the time being. They need to wait for the market to give a stable signal. The altcoins will gradually become active and rotated. Even if the market trend is fluctuating and falling, the key altcoin sectors will also be active. In fact, the market is not worried about the rising or falling trend of the market, but about the short-term plunge. Therefore, once the market tends to fluctuate and fall steadily, the market sentiment will not be too panic. At the same time, it can be seen from today's data that the altcoin trading volume has increased and has gradually become active.
However, what we still have to worry about is the outflow of U.S. funds when Bitcoin rises in the afternoon. We need to continue to observe whether this will have a more far-reaching impact on the market in the short term.
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Finally, thank you all for your continued attention to Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
