The market sentiment is good at present. The performance of ETFs in the US time zone last Friday was also good. After all, the price rose. In the absence of liquidity on the weekend, the sentiment was even better. There was no major event that hit the sentiment for the time being. Of course, fluctuations are inevitable.
It's nothing more than the CPI data next Wednesday and the core PCE data on the 31st. There is also the ETH ETF situation on May 23. This affects ETH. Whether it passes or not, the hype is about emotions. Everyone who has experienced BTC knows it. Then there is the inflation data next month. The interest rate meeting is on June 11-12. The issue of interest rate cuts will be discussed. So in terms of major fundamentals, except for interest rate cuts, nothing can greatly affect emotions.
At least for now, the sentiment this month is still good. Of course, the most direct way to observe the sentiment is to look at the volume and trend of BTC at midnight Beijing time every day, that is, ETF, and then the funding situation.
After the Bitcoin halving, the downward space is very limited. Now (May 2024), Bitcoin is 63,000. Even if it crashes again, it will fall to around 50,000. First of all, after the Bitcoin ETF is approved, the cost for large institutions to enter is not low. Secondly, after the halving, the shutdown price of miners has increased a lot. Therefore, it is the consensus of the entire market that we don’t want Bitcoin to fall.
Next, it is likely that the market will continue to be washed between 55,000 and 65,000, and sometimes the amplitude will be larger (there are needles in both rises and falls), which will cause a group of gamblers to burst. This will last for a few months, and when everyone is tired and accustomed to this consolidation range, the market will suddenly pull up to 75,000.
People have inertia. After a high, it must fall back. After a new high, there must be a correction. Some shorts will inevitably come in, and then continue to pull up, killing these shorts for the New Year, and pull it up to around 85,000. In this way, most people will miss out, the market will also be hyped up, and everyone will start to enter the market. It is estimated that it will rise to more than 100,000. When the leeks understand that the bull is really coming, they will start to enter the market to chase the rise, and the uncles and aunts will start to rush into the market, and the dog dealers will slowly ship out and complete the harvest.
There won’t be much market in the two months after the halving, but there are many projects and opportunities in the related ecosystem. We cannot lose confidence because of the adjustment of the market, and we must still participate actively. In Q3 and Q4, the market will officially enter an explosive rise, so don’t be afraid, the next big correction is the best time to layout!
What should we focus on?
For the SOL sector, this time the heat is not likely to be just a temporary hype, but may be a protracted battle.
Bitcoin's L2 and BRC20 (as long as they are the leaders) may be able to be listed on other major exchanges. The current wash-out may be in preparation for that day.
Before the rate cut, currencies with high liquidity and solid fundamentals are expected to perform well.
In the RWA sector, ONDO and MKR are the focus. Who knows, some new things may emerge that will be as eye-catching as ONDO and MKR.
When the interest rate is cut, the price of Bitcoin is not expected to be low, and 80,000 is just the starting price. But after the interest rate cut, don't be too happy, there may be a risk of a callback in the short term.
Although the Ethereum exchange rate has now fallen to the bottom, the rebound momentum should not be far away.
Although the current altcoins have fallen badly, don’t forget that the price of Bitcoin is still quite stable, which shows that there is still hope in the market.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
