Employment data helped U.S. stocks continue to rise, Bitcoin's rebound was blocked, and U.S. funds left the market at a key rising stage. What does this mean?
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As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 63,840. Bitcoin rebounded significantly in the afternoon European session, but then encountered weekly EMA7 and fell back.
Last week's employment data once again boosted the risk market, and U.S. stocks opened with good gains on Monday. For the time being, U.S. stocks have not sucked blood from the crypto market again.
However, by observing the market capital data, it was found that during the afternoon Bitcoin rebound, there was a large outflow of US funds. Does this outflow of funds during the rise indicate that US traders are gradually losing confidence in the market in the short term? Currently, US funds are still in a net outflow state.
Bitcoin market situation:
At present, the intraday rebound of Bitcoin has reached the weekly EMA7 and has fallen significantly. The time that contributed to this wave of rise was also the European session. It is currently uncertain how much power the Asian session has. With this wave of rebound and rise, the price has once again consolidated its position on the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band.
The previous key daily resistance level turned into short-term support around 63,500 after being broken.
The resistance level for continued rebound above is the weekly EMA7 near 66,200 and the daily EMA7 near 67,300.
Once the short-term price breaks through the daily resistance of 67,300 and stabilizes, the market sentiment will tend to be optimistic and bullish.
The support below, except for around 63,500, once it falls below, we will continue to look at the position of the integer level. At present, this wave of rebound fell back to 65,000. I don’t know whether it triggered the exit mechanism of a large number of holders at this position. The relevant data still needs to be seen from the situation on the chain.
Let’s take a look at Monday’s market data and fund changes later. Whether Bitcoin can continue to break through tonight depends on the situation of the U.S. stock market. Before the U.S. stock market opens, we should pay attention to whether U.S. funds are being sucked out. If so, we should look at the return of funds after the U.S. stock market closes. If the U.S. stock market performs well tonight, whether Bitcoin can break through the upper resistance with the help of sentiment will become very critical.
Let the data speak: Trading volume is gradually released, and it is still lower than the previous value. The key is to increase the volume to break through.
Pay attention to the overall data today. With the increase in market value, the best performing market today is the altcoin market. The proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased. The optimism of altcoins is much better than that of Bitcoin. However, the increase in market value is not large.
In terms of trading volume, the current trading volume is still decreasing compared to Saturday, but the difference between the previous value and the previous value is gradually decreasing. Once the U.S. stock market opens and U.S. traders start trading, the increase compared to Saturday can be achieved. Moreover, the current price breakthrough of Bitcoin will be conducive to the price breakthrough once it starts to increase in volume, which is a good thing.
In terms of funds, the retained funds in the market increased by 100 million, and the net outflow of off-market funds was 97 million US dollars, of which Asian funds had a net inflow of 32 US dollars and the US funds had a net outflow of 129 million. Combined with the retained funds in the market, about 200 million funds ended transactions today, 100 million remained in the market, and 100 million flowed out of the market.
Although there is a net inflow of funds in Asia, the fluctuations are still relatively large as shown in the fund data chart. During the period, Asian funds once exceeded 111.1 billion, and then began to flow out. Currently, there are only about 110.8 billion funds remaining in Asia. The intraday flow of funds is frequent, and the fund sentiment is not all positive.
As for U.S. funds, at around 16:25 in the afternoon, the stock of funds exceeded 33.7 billion and then flowed out of the market in large quantities.
Combined with the trend of Bitcoin, the outflow of funds during the breakthrough and rise of Bitcoin indicates that there is a situation of cashing out at high prices, and funds may be sucked away by US stocks again. If the capital situation continues to be unstable and the US continues to outflow without returning this week, it will be more difficult for Bitcoin's price to continue to break through.
Macroeconomics and news:
Last week, the employment data released by the United States once again boosted the optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year, and the risk market rose due to the optimism. However, my view is still that the Federal Reserve is regulating the US stock market by manipulating market expectations.
The recent US stock earnings week did not bring as good results as expected. The weak trend of US stocks, the decline of traders' cautiousness, and the market's comments about the high bubble of US stocks were all unfavorable to the trend of US stocks. However, before the Federal Reserve released the employment data, it revised the previous value data and then released a surprising employment data. The US stock market was boosted again after the earnings week.
However, we also admire the adaptability of the risk market. We had previously discussed a mid-year rate cut, and the market was optimistic after three rate cuts. After that, the Fed's consecutive hawkish remarks caused market expectations to drop sharply. At this time, the Fed only needed to prove to the market that we would cut interest rates this year, and the risk market became optimistic again. The market's expectations for rate cuts are getting lower and lower, and it is becoming easier and easier to be satisfied with optimism. This is not a good thing.
The employment data confirmed the expectation of rate cuts, boosted the stock market, and also showed that the Fed still cares about the importance of US stocks. In other words, the liquidity provided by the US stock market in the future rate cuts is what the Fed attaches great importance to. Therefore, in an environment where financial report expectations are not optimistic, market expectations are used to save the decadent trend of US stocks. However, how long can this shot-in-the-arm rescue last? At least it should not be a problem to hold on until the next financial report cycle.
However, using market expectations to adjust the U.S. stock market will also bring greater pressure to the next cycle of U.S. stock earnings. With the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts, traders will have higher valuations and expectations for U.S. companies. If the actual situation of the earnings report does not meet market expectations, how will the Fed save the situation? In addition, in this process, more and more high-net-worth investors will feel the risk of U.S. stocks.
Currently, the U.S. stock market opened higher and continued to rise. This week will be a period of intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Whether the speeches of various officials can boost optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts and continue to drive the U.S. stock market depends on the current heat of the U.S. stock market.
Market summary:
The current rebound of Bitcoin still relies on the momentum of the U.S. stock market. The good news is that U.S. funds did not leave the crypto market again before the U.S. stock market opened. Of course, this is based on the premise that a large amount of funds flowed out after 16:00 in the afternoon.
Bitcoin is currently rebounding. Pay attention to the situation of the upper resistance position. The breakthrough of each resistance and whether it can quickly stabilize are the keys to simply judge the market sentiment. Once the breakthrough is difficult and the decline is fast, it proves that the market sentiment is still not optimistic, and today's capital is still in a state of net outflow from the United States. The trading volume has gradually increased on Monday. Once the key support is broken and the trading volume increases significantly, the bullish optimism can be confirmed, otherwise there is still a risk of a short-term decline.
Many retail investors are concerned about the whales buying. Here I want to say that in the long term, the future potential of Bitcoin and the crypto market is still very large. Simply put, the bull market has not gone, or even really come, so the future is promising. However, for many short-term or short-term traders, the market's callback and volatility also need to pay attention to adjusting their positions.
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